Global Macro Trading Journal

m22au said:
I agree that GBTC prices are crazy, but I don't think Bitcoin futures are a catalyst for the GBTC premium to narrow. The reason for this is that the average Joe who owns GBTC (1) doesn't trade futures and/or (2) has GBTC in an IRA or Roth IRA.

I think the real catalyst for GBTC premium to disappear is an ETF, which I hope is approved next year following the launch of Bitcoin futures.

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Well, its not going to help having those futures around, that's for sure. A lot of people will then launch ETFs based on the futures, kinda like they do with the agricultural and commodity ETF based on futures. There will be options as well. Furthermore, I trade GBTC daily and there are a lot of people throwing around 100-300 share sizes, for those people, it simply will make no sense not to play with the futures. They are big enough of a players to know how to get involved with futures

I think I got enough ways to win
-BTC crashes back to $5k or bellow, premium will vanish as it will make no sense to pay a premium to a collapsing asset with a 2% annual charge. There are plenty of funds in the US that trade at a discount to the underlying assets
-The futures/options/etfs bring down the premium even though BTC doesnt crash

If I hold this for a few weeks and it doesnt come back down, then I will cover and move on
But my point is that this trade is negatively correlated with BTC sentiment and it probably has positive expectation, at the right size this a good hedge to have on for those long BTC and other coins
 
I setup my stop at ~$9000 on BTC
I also learned how to claim my Bitcoin gold today and will be selling that on HitBTC for BTC or LTC and then cashing that in on Kraken
 
Daal said:
Its a lot more mainstream now than when it was at a 1000. That Katy Perry asking Buffett about bitcoin news, if thats not like a shoe shine boy moment, I dont know what it is. My point is, crash risks have never been higher due to the price action, sentiment and fundamentals, so it makes sense to cash out most while still keeping some with a stop. Yesterday was the first warning, it went from 11400 to 9000 in just a few hours. I see no reason why this cant go from 10k to 4K in a week, no reason really
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I don't see any reason from 1000 to 10k. Better just follow the trend. No reason doesn't mean it would stop raising.
 
Daal said:
Well, its not going to help having those futures around, that's for sure. A lot of people will then launch ETFs based on the futures, kinda like they do with the agricultural and commodity ETF based on futures. There will be options as well. Furthermore, I trade GBTC daily and there are a lot of people throwing around 100-300 share sizes, for those people, it simply will make no sense not to play with the futures. They are big enough of a players to know how to get involved with futures

I think I got enough ways to win
-BTC crashes back to $5k or bellow, premium will vanish as it will make no sense to pay a premium to a collapsing asset with a 2% annual charge. There are plenty of funds in the US that trade at a discount to the underlying assets
-The futures/options/etfs bring down the premium even though BTC doesnt crash

If I hold this for a few weeks and it doesnt come back down, then I will cover and move on
But my point is that this trade is negatively correlated with BTC sentiment and it probably has positive expectation, at the right size this a good hedge to have on for those long BTC and other coins
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Yes you are right - the futures will probably help to reduce the premium a little bit, however, it I'm guessing that it will still exist and be significant (more than 20%). Only when a Bitcoin ETF starts trading will the premium reduce to single digit % amount.

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GloriaBrown said:
I don't see any reason from 1000 to 10k. Better just follow the trend. No reason doesn't mean it would stop raising.
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Here is the thing, "rebalancing" works, in theory and in practice. When you have 5% in something and it doubles, now you got 10%, it makes sense to sell that extra 5% and go back to the original 5% (if it was appropriate at 5% in the past why not now). I'm going a step further and saying that crash risks have never been higher as the asset is much higher (up 10x in the year), extremely popular (wide coverage everywhere, even by mainstream people) and fundamentals have not improved much(no major retailer has accepted it, its still very difficult to use bitcoin). So if risks are higher, then it makes sense to rebalance to a lower allocation than the initial one. if it was 5%, 2% might make more sense, etc
What does NOT make sense to get more confident as prices go higher and crash risks increase, to allow these unproven assets become a huge % of a portfolio. The theme of "i will put a little bit into bit and maybe I will retire in 10 years" is what created this bubble in the first place. Until fundamentals improve it just doesn't make sense to remain heavily invested there with risks so high.
 
24296693_1933917606863032_6965867264946641774_n.jpg


Bitcoin this year vs bubbles. Today's front page of the WSJ
My thesis is that bitcoin is a 'bubble on fast forward', if I'm right it can die out a lot faster than people think
I got chopped a little today as my stop got hit at 9000 but the price held a few times, a double bottom, I was forced to pay a higher price later to rebuy. But my exposure is the lowest it has been since I invested on this a few months ago and I will not hold if it loses that 9000 level. I want to capture the potential upside without risking bagholding a 90% drop like all the idiots are doing
 
Daal said:
One thing is for sure, this is a great market to monitor. It should be a important part of any good trader's arsenal, to be able to trade cryptos (both in terms of skill and in terms of having the accounts/addresses/hardware wallets, etc). Almost every morning I go through a list of 80 crypto charts and then make some buy and sell decisions based on it (I care little about the actual fundamentals, only the chart), I suggest other pros to do the same. It doesn't take all that much money in these things to produce some returns, they are naturally very levered. Swing and position trading cryptos have been added to me trading arsenal and I believe it will be a nice supplemental profit center in the coming years, regardless of what happens to BTC
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I see that DASH has been doing well relatively to other cryptos in the last few days. Currently at $767, which is roughly where it was when Bitcoin was over $11,000.

I know you said that you care little about fundamentals - but do you know why it is so strong compared to other currencies?
 
m22au said:
I see that DASH has been doing well relatively to other cryptos in the last few days. Currently at $767, which is roughly where it was when Bitcoin was over $11,000.

I know you said that you care little about fundamentals - but do you know why it is so strong compared to other currencies?
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From what I have read its because its more anonymous than bitcoin so some people are thinking this will do well because of the demand from criminals, tax evaders and the like. But the same thing could have been said about XMR and ZEC and their rallies have been more contained in recent days, so who knows
As far as bitcoin goes, a few years back I thought this might have been a great buy because of criminal demand, but I was completely wrong. Bitcoin is so public it offers very little value for people that want to do dirty stuff. Just check out the site
https://www.walletexplorer.com/

And put in an address that you have used, you will see all the transactions that were ever done in the history of that address. And the history of the addesses that were sent from the original address. This whole bitcoin thing is a prosecutor's dream, all they need is to prove that someone own an address, after that they have ALL that persons 'bank' records publicly avaliable on the blockchain. And to prove someone owns an address all they need is pressure the exchanges or if they are not balking, a court order for them to turn over records. That's not that hard to do.
Bitcoin is only anonymous if you store bitcoins in a private wallet forever and never use it, kinda like Satoshi is doing with his 1M BTC. The minute he uses it in a retailer or cashouts out in an exchange, the entire world will know who he is. So he is a billionarie but cant spend a dime without revealing himself
 
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