Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
So there is this guy that I like on youtube, he talks about crypto currencies and explains a lot about them (Ivan on Tech). Yet, before Bitcoin Cash (BCC) came out, he said that it wasn't that good of a currency and he said it wasn't worth more than $100. And now this thing is ripping on $700. I'm seriously considering cutting down the amount of 'research' I do on coins by a lot, to read less and watch less videos explaning things. The more one understands, the worse they will do, honestly. If you dont understand anything, you will learn by trial and error and quickly find out the way to trade these, if you try to figure things out, it might take your whole life. I'm thinking of having my crypto method be composed of just a few things:
-The Chart/Price action. I like the huge drop and then perk up pattern, basically something that is off a lot from the highs and show signs of life, starting a come back but there are others. Breakouts could work too but its tricky, sometimes you will get bagged
-Sentiment indicators, when people on the street are buying bitcoin (instead of just talking about it, or mentioning that they know someone that bought it), magazines are covering it widely, etc. Then I will be worried about it
-Buying and taking gradual profits on the way up (a form of 'rebalancing'). Especially when the price action accelerates to the upside and minor sentiment indicators are triggering
That's it. I hardly I think I need anything else
-The Chart/Price action. I like the huge drop and then perk up pattern, basically something that is off a lot from the highs and show signs of life, starting a come back but there are others. Breakouts could work too but its tricky, sometimes you will get bagged
-Sentiment indicators, when people on the street are buying bitcoin (instead of just talking about it, or mentioning that they know someone that bought it), magazines are covering it widely, etc. Then I will be worried about it
-Buying and taking gradual profits on the way up (a form of 'rebalancing'). Especially when the price action accelerates to the upside and minor sentiment indicators are triggering
That's it. I hardly I think I need anything else
Here is the Aaron Brown article talking about allocations and cryptos
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-07-13/finding-value-in-cryptocurrencies
"It isn't necessary that existing cryptocurrencies thrive, any more than in 1995 it was important to buy the internet companies that are big in 2017 (most of them had not yet been founded). What was important was to have the correct amount of exposure to the internet sector, and to stay diversified so you picked up the winners (and the losers) as they came to market."
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-07-13/finding-value-in-cryptocurrencies
"It isn't necessary that existing cryptocurrencies thrive, any more than in 1995 it was important to buy the internet companies that are big in 2017 (most of them had not yet been founded). What was important was to have the correct amount of exposure to the internet sector, and to stay diversified so you picked up the winners (and the losers) as they came to market."
Ether is already up 50 points since my entry a few weeks ago and Zencash is already up 13 points since my entry this morning. This market seems so much easier than stocks. You dont have to outsmart other traders and HFTs all day long by thinking at the 5th level. You just buy at key moments when risk-reward makes sense and then collect the gains
Another one I am starting to look in to is waves. The more I look in to it it seems like there are multiple options that blow bitcoin away in terms of functionality.
Here is what I'm long now
Largest position is on ether, litecoin and zcash. I bought XMR saturday but screwed up as I run out of cash on Kraken and only got in a small position. My wire hit my account today but now its already rocketing higher and I dont want to buy it. I made another wire today as my purchases of Zcash and ether took away all my cash. I will send some ether to a private wallet to keep broker risk down
Largest position is on ether, litecoin and zcash. I bought XMR saturday but screwed up as I run out of cash on Kraken and only got in a small position. My wire hit my account today but now its already rocketing higher and I dont want to buy it. I made another wire today as my purchases of Zcash and ether took away all my cash. I will send some ether to a private wallet to keep broker risk down
I agree with your sentiment on not over-researching to a certain degree, but at the same time the vast majority of these coins are knockoffs of something else that bring nothing to the table. I'm moving money right now to invest and I'm trying to at least pick the #1 of each type that brings a certain feature to the table. I'm hoping that when the inevitable volatile drops happen these will be the ones that are hurt the least and are bought up when participants take a step back after feeling some pain and re-evaluate their options.