Global Macro Trading Journal

Charts you wont find at ZeroHedge:

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Forward PEs have explained the market a lot better than the almost useless Shiller PE. Analysts have done a better job than a professor mechanical and slow indicator. They deserve props not criticism, sure they can be wrong, but who isn't? I will react when facts are presented that indicate to me that earnings will collapse but other than that, this market is still fine from a valuation point of view
 
traider said:
What exchange do you use for ETH? How do you deal with exchange risk and security of wallet?
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kraken, I cannot vouch for its safety, I have no idea. I mentioned trying to open an account at BTC-e in the past and they got shutdown, so there is risk. I do plan to keep my ETH in 'cold storage', so if kraken goes bust, I will keep my coins. I will still keep some there for margin purposes in short-term trades that I take
 
I figure at the very least, cryptos are good as part of a asset allocation because they help hedge a gold position. Truth is that these coins are even better than gold in a lot of ways, the more they grow, the more the chance that the will take demand away from gold. So being long them for me is kinda like having Blockbuster stock in the portfolio but also having the early Netflix as well. I'm protected against them making it big
 
I'm also long a small amount of Litecoin but this one I might not keep it if it starts to suck. Honestly I have no idea what is this coin, I bought because I liked the chart a few weeks ago and I kept it
 
What is funny about ether and bitcoin is that one of the reasons why the skeptics bring up on why they dont like them, namely the volatility hurting its status as medium of account/store of value, is actually one of the main positive reasons to buy it. Most of the volatility is upside vol, these things are up what, 1000x? If anything this will only draw MORE people towards them as they chase momo, heck, even I want a store of value that can go up 10x in a few months So these things might win on ecomomic demand, but also on speculative demand. Two ways to win

And if not, and they go worthless, big deal. I will take the pain of being a convexity bagholder rather than to be a convexity skeptic and lose big profits every year for the rest of my life. So I think they will work as good "convexity practice"
 
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The store of value that is going up a lot is what Soros calls a 'irresistible' combination or something like that. He said in the context of currencies that have a high carry and are going up. It becomes really hard for investors to resist such combination. With cryptos the carry comes in the form of capital gains
 
Aaron Brown said he recommended that people should put 1-2% of their allocation into cryptos. That back in 2013. I think his numbers make a lot of sense. More and its tricky, they are so volatile that it can be reckless, especially now. I plan to add Ether if it clears $315 and $400 but will stay at 0.5% until then
 
Daal said:
And if not, and they go worthless, big deal. I will take the pain of being a convexity bagholder rather than to be a convexity skeptic and lose big profits every year for the rest of my life
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If I ever write something on convexity and investing/long-term trades. that ought to be one of the main rules. Its better to baghold a convexity bet that soured than to be the skeptic who misses out runs every year. I have no way to prove this but I suspect one of the main reasons why Taleb hates the stock market so much, its because he has been missing out gains on it for like ages. He rather be the skeptic that will eventually be right than to make money. I rather baghold a few things, get comfortable with it and do better in the long-term. Its like jumping in a cold pool, some people are too scared to jump so they lurk around all their life jealous of the ones that did. But after you jump, it gets easier overtime
 
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