Global Macro Trading Journal

Daal if you're looking for a cryptocurrency with convexity, have a look at Litecoin.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ltcusd

The "market cap" is only $2.4 billion, so compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum it probably has more upside potential. The strong upward move in the last 10 hours from below $40 to $45.91 demonstrates some outperformance versus BTC and ETH. I have no position, but I wish there was an ETF to trade!

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m22au said:
Daal if you're looking for a cryptocurrency with convexity, have a look at Litecoin.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ltcusd

The "market cap" is only $2.4 billion, so compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum it probably has more upside potential. The strong upward move in the last 10 hours from below $40 to $45.91 demonstrates some outperformance versus BTC and ETH. I have no position, but I wish there was an ETF to trade!

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tks
 
Here is a random thought/possibility: intuition might be great not because its accurate/precise/or 'smart' but simply because it gets people to try different things than they are used to. In the process of trying different things people learn (as Taleb says, a lot of the great discoveries were made by tinkering not thinking or planning). In technical terms, intution might widen the distribution of different elements that are in a trial and error sample, so there are more lessons drawn and hence, long-term, more learning and more skill
The problem is, usually, the more academically trained someone is (or the bigger their ego), the more averse they are likely to be averse to intutions
 
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Daal said:
Here is a random thought/possibility: intuition might be great not because its accurate/precise/or 'smart' but simply because it gets people to try different things than they are used to. In the process of trying different things people learn (as Taleb says, a lot of the great discoveries were made by tinkering not thinking or planning). In technical terms, intution might widen the distribution of different elements that are in a trial and error sample, so there are more lessons drawn and hence, long-term, more learning and more skill
The problem is, usually, the more academically trained someone is (or the bigger their ego), the more averse they are likely to be averse to intutions
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There is also the bonus that intution might work because it simply does. That is, that there is some kind of greater inteligence in the subconcious that manifests itself sometimes through body signals (gut feelings and other manifestations). Either way, it looks like a key component of any good practitioner's arsenal to get good skills long-term
 
The whole Martin Skreli hedge fund drama could possibly the most new york thing ever, at least in my mind. Guy learns his whole live how powerful convexity is, watches dozens of people get massively rich being long biotechs, then sets up a hedge fund with high fees (typical NY thing do to) then blows up massively shorting/going negative/bearish in a biotech name. Its like, no matter what you throw at some new yorkers, they can't overcome the influence that they have from the people, culture, media, books, etc. They can't overcome ego issues (and it doesnt help that he plays Chess, which just fuels the 'im smart' attitude), the itch to short (a huge way to prove how great you are, by profiting while everyone is losing), the contrarianism, etc
Its fascinating to watch because you can tell that the guy had a lot of potential but got screwed up by the ego, which no doubt found a fertile soil in New York
 
Daal said:
The whole Martin Skreli hedge fund drama could possibly the most new york thing ever, at least in my mind. Guy learns his whole live how powerful convexity is, watches dozens of people get massively rich being long biotechs, then sets up a hedge fund with high fees (typical NY thing do to) then blows up massively shorting/going negative/bearish in a biotech name. Its like, no matter what you throw at some new yorkers, they can't overcome the influence that they have from the people, culture, media, books, etc. They can't overcome ego issues (and it doesnt help that he plays Chess, which just fuels the 'im smart' attitude), the itch to short (a huge way to prove how great you are, by profiting while everyone is losing), the contrarianism, etc
Its fascinating to watch because you can tell that the guy had a lot of potential but got screwed up by the ego, which no doubt found a fertile soil in New York
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Today I finished listening to an audiobook that talks about NY in a similar way that I have been hammering for weeks now. Its The Education of a Value Investor, its an excellent book that I was quite impressed with. These days I avoid value investing books like a plague because usually there is nothing new in them, just a few Buffett/Munger quotes and a bunch of things I already know. This one has that but it also has a lot about mindsets, psychology, the toxic influence of NY (he calls it "The New York Vortex", he had to move to Zurich to get rid of that toxicity), the importance of rules/checklists in investing, the importance of creating a good ecosystem around you (which is huge) to help you perform. Its a pretty good book, I'm already relistening to parts of it because I feel that some parts are more profund than they sound like.

This whole NY/Wall Street negative influence I also feel that has profund consequences that are probably even beyond I can understand now, that's why I keep bring it up over and over. Once you become aware of the toxicity of that culture, you start to 'see the matrix' and notice all the subtle ways that mindset can sneak in on you. I was never a Gordon Gekko type but I look back in my past and I see a lot of moments where I was heavily influenced by a lighter version of that thinking. Sometimes in simple things like caring too much about statistics/research instead of listening to my gut or other methods (it appeals to the ego more to do your "great analysis" rather than relying on other methods). Ego is a sneaky thing, it can disrupt you without you even realizing. If anyone thinks they are above that kind of ego, then that's probably a manifestation of the ego ("I'm special, I'm not affect by things like that")
Bill Ackman is probably a much worse investor due his NY location and I bet a lot of other people are too. In terms of Ackman it isn't hard to show that given that he destroyed almost 1 decade worth of outperformance due VRX and not being humble enough there
There are probably many other different ways that negative influences can sneak up on people without them even realizing
 
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I also see now why I was never a big fan of Charlie Munger even though I like Buffett. Charlie always sounded arrogant, egoic, negative, brash, I had plenty of that in my personality and my intution knew I was unbalanced (too bearish and not bullish enough). The way to balance myself was to like Buffett and other positive investors and avoid negativity. I never read Poor Charlies Almanac or even watched his video on Human Misjudgments. It was probably my subconcious trying to protect me from negative influences that disrupt someone's balance. Now that I'm aware of all that, I can finally read his stuff but during my development, avoiding people with NY traits was huge (I also stopped reading anything from John Hussman years ago, he had a special way of sucking me in to the negative vortex because he is a big user of statistics and 'fake science' to back the bear case)
 
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This negative/egoic NY influence is another reason why I got to be less bullish in the US at these prices. Trump was born and lived his whole life there, he lived the ecoic lifestyle for too long and manufactured an even bigger, out of this world type lifestyle. He build up an huge ego along the way. Now he is getting an intoxicating job position where power and image are huge things. This is a very dangerous combination, he can easily get carried away and the Comey firing was probably the beginning. I plan to continue to purchase way OTM puts as a hedge to my positions but I'm considering trimming down them as well and switching to EM ETFs
 
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