Global Macro Trading Journal

"Consumer short-term debt is approaching a historical turning point, it must soon adjust itself to the nation's capacity for going in hock, which is not limitless"

"The same general observations apply to mortgage debt -- but with double force"

Source?
Fortune magazine 1956

I'm considering adding some Chinese stock ETFs to my allocation, in part because of that (namely that concerns over the level of chinese debts will probably turn out to be wrong or way early), in other part because its a lot cheaper than developed markets and I sense there will be a stock bubble there in the next 10 years. Perhaps this will be like buying bitcoin a few years ago
 

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Daal said:
"Consumer short-term debt is approaching a historical turning point, it must soon adjust itself to the nation's capacity for going in hock, which is not limitless"

"The same general observations apply to mortgage debt -- but with double force"

Source?
Fortune magazine 1956

I'm considering adding some Chinese stock ETFs to my allocation, in part because of that (namely that concerns over the level of chinese debts will probably turn out to be wrong or way early), in other part because its a lot cheaper than developed markets and I sense there will be a stock bubble there in the next 10 years. Perhaps this will be like buying bitcoin a few years ago
More...

There was a stock bubble there in 2015.
CNXT is still more than 50% below its peak.
ASHR is still more than 35% below its peak.

Although I can't for certain rule one out in the next 10 years, it would be unusual for that to occur given that investors may still be licking their wounds from only 2 years ago.

.
 
m22au said:
There was a stock bubble there in 2015.
CNXT is still more than 50% below its peak.
ASHR is still more than 35% below its peak.

Although I can't for certain rule one out in the next 10 years, it would be unusual for that to occur given that investors may still be licking their wounds from only 2 years ago.

.
More...
Here are some interesting info

112015-TRW-HSCEI_564f6a94aa9a0.png


112015-TRW-CSI_564f6a92df89f.png


I'm not seeing any recent bubbles (except the 2007 cycle), just a little boom bust cycle that is natural to stock markets.
Question is whether to use CAF or FXI, Chinese A shares or HK Chinese shares
 
Daal said:
Here are some interesting info

112015-TRW-HSCEI_564f6a94aa9a0.png


112015-TRW-CSI_564f6a92df89f.png


I'm not seeing any recent bubbles (except the 2007 cycle), just a little boom bust cycle that is natural to stock markets.
Question is whether to use CAF or FXI, Chinese A shares or HK Chinese shares
More...
I have a small position in MCHI, bought when it was $48.40, up over 10% now. I'd be happy to add on a dip but it has proven quite resilient. Long term hold so I don't check on it all the time, which helps me deal with market volatility.

I think what people fear about China is correct, but I feel they underestimate the value of the ability to bring the full power of the state to bear on problems without having to bother about democratic niceties. It's why I'm willing to take a chance there.
 
justrading said:
I have a small position in MCHI, bought when it was $48.40, up over 10% now. I'd be happy to add on a dip but it has proven quite resilient. Long term hold so I don't check on it all the time, which helps me deal with market volatility.

I think what people fear about China is correct, but I feel they underestimate the value of the ability to bring the full power of the state to bear on problems without having to bother about democratic niceties. It's why I'm willing to take a chance there.
More...
What holds me back from investing is the fact that Chinese stocks are up a lot YTD and the bear thesis is a banking crisis. These ETFs are cheap because they are heavy on banking and insurace (and Tencent I guess), if a crisis were to play out, they would drop 50% easily, probably more. So additional techniques to control for risk seem needed, one of them is to get a good entry point. Not buying when an investment is popular, not buying during a lot of strength, etc
So I might have to wait this out a bit, this will also give me time to do more research. Hopefully global stocks have a drop in then soon and I can get my improved entry to reduce risk
 
"FED'S DUDLEY: HALTING TIGHTENING CYCLE NOW WOULD IMPERIL ECONOMY"

Fed is starting to communicate to the market its new methodology more blatantly
 
Daal said:
"FED'S DUDLEY: HALTING TIGHTENING CYCLE NOW WOULD IMPERIL ECONOMY"

Fed is starting to communicate to the market its new methodology more blatantly
More...
Fed is becoming more aligned to Austrian economics lol.
 
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