Global Macro Trading Journal

The name that was being thrown around for an indirect election (by Congress vote) was Fernando Henrique Cardoso. He was the guy who stopped hyperinflation with the Plano Real and was president from 1994 to 2002. He almost got pension reform done in the 90s, he had the guts to try way before it was a consensus to be necessary. If he indeed gets elected, that's highly bullish. He is popular enough to get people together and get reforms passed
 
The Brazil Temer tape came out and it was a lot less damning than it was expected. It look like it was mostly a move by prosecutors to delay pension reform, since they will be hit pretty hard by it. Now the political situation is in limbo and its unclear what happens, Temer lost a lot of political capital even though there is barely any evidence of anything.
 
This crypto market is so hot, it will be interesting to see which sites are the good wallet sites/brokers and which are the bad ones. There will be a nasty correction, the sites that delay withdraws, conversions, etc are the scams the ones that don't will be the ones to stick with long-term. I'm currently trying to set this up in a way that I can hold USD and trade these coins quickly with stops, its absolutely RIDICULOUS what markets participants are doing, which is to hold Bitcoin, Ether or whatever and then jump in and out of other coins as they see fit. These people are not holding a numerarie. Its like trading tech stocks in and out and then holding another tech stock when you run out of trade ideas, its just retarded. I didn't know this market functioned like that. I wouldn't be a buyer right now of this stuff, regardless of what happens, on average its a horrific decision to be a buyer right now. After a nasty correction, then I might start to get in this
 
These crypto folks can say all they want about fiat money yet, deep down they know that USDs, EURs, JPYs, CNYs, etc are stable stores of value whereas Bitcoin and other coins right now are not. They are using it as a store of value because its appreciating and that creates an 'irresistible' force (according to Soros) but that is a momentum game, once that reverses, everybody will head to the exits at the same time and chase a stable unit of account, fiat money. Thats when the wallet sites, exchanges might limit withdraws, go bust, put plays on people, run with the cash, be exposed as ponzis, etc etc
 
This is kinda like high carry currencies will grind up daily/weekly/monthly gains for a long-time and then have a large drop against stable currencies (USDs, CHFs) in a short period as people head for exits. Even if long-term they are totally solid, its still a bad time to buy them
 
Normally one can trade these plays by playing the momentum with close by stops. But the problem is that these sites can't be trusted, they might just go bust, dissapear, be ponzis, delay things, etc. This might create even more panic amongst these momo chasers
If I understand correctly, a lot of the sites that promise real liquidity (that is, they offer FIAT liquidity, the ability to convert ecoins to USDs, EURs etc) are simply market makers (dealers). When markets to haywire they are going to widen out spreads, reverse transactions (because it doesnt benefit them) and pull all kinds of tricks
FXCM was doing that shit even though they were fully regulated.
I need to do a lot more research in this world before I trust them with my money
 
I know one buy the coins and store it themselves but that leads to the numeraire problem, trading tech stocks while holding tech stocks as margin. Which is nuts. So the responsible way to deal with this in my mind is to wait for this market to be cleansed in the next months when the momo reverses and then see who didn't scam people
 
So there is this Tether USD thing that can help as a numerarie https://tether.to/
Its supposed to be backed 1-1 to the USD, there is still a fair amount of risk involved. The company can always fuck you or they can get shutdown but its still better than guaranteeing a loss by buying after a parabolic rise and holding
What I want to do is to setup this Tether USD and then oportunistically trade these coins, long and short. They are looking a lot better as day and swing trades than the stock market these days
Longer-term I would only be a buyer of digital coins if they were to cool off and tank a bunch
 
My hope is that this is 1997 or 98 and these bitcoin stuff are like tech stocks. They will be great trading vehicles if that is so
 
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