Global Macro Trading Journal

I added some more to Fed futures short, now I got double of the initial position. My baseline scenario is for 2 hikes this year and 3 next year. This will produce a gain of around 60-80bps, against a risk of 0 to 20-30bps
 
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-20/goldman-we-have-become-less-confident-about-near-term-hikes

"
Q: Others seem to have moved their view much more. The market-implied probability of a hike in June stands at only about 40%, little more than one hike is priced for the remainder of 2017, and only somewhat more than two hikes are priced cumulatively through the end of 2018. Why?

A: Our interpretation is that two policy-related worries have exacerbated the impact of the weaker data on bond market sentiment. The first is that an earlier start to balance sheet runoff—relative to expectations at the start of the year—could result in a lengthy pause in the normalization process for the funds rate. The second is that the growth-positive aspects of the Trump agenda have stalled. In particular, the failure of ACA repeal/replace has also hit expectations of fiscal easing, which featured prominently in many market participants’ expectations for stronger growth.

We take a somewhat more sanguine view. On balance sheet runoff, we expect only a limited impact on bond yields and financial conditions, equivalent to only about 5bp in terms of the funds rate. Our view is consistent with the very benign market reaction to the recent FOMC discussion about earlier balance sheet runoff. On tax cuts, we think the read-across from the failure of health care reform is limited. It is politically much easier to deliver a net benefit to the electorate via tax cuts than to take away health care coverage. Thus, we still see a tax cut of around 1% of GDP as likely."

The Freedom Caucus got to be the heroes of the day by messing up the healthcare vote but if they fuck up corporate tax reform, its going to be very different. I mean, their base is free market/small government, if you fuck up corporate tax reform where a cut is expected and they will simplify the code, you will lose a lot of votes. As a result, they have a lot less leverage
 
Not that I'm in the business of trying to predict political votes, I think thats so hard it borders on insanity. A more robust approach is to assume the worst case and see how the trades/investments do, then go from there. Political votes that help those trades/investments are bonuses
 
No surprise in French elections with Macron being a good favorite for the run-off plus Trump saying a big tax plan comes out wednesday. ES up 20+ points and Fed futures in free fall
 
Daal said:
Trump saying a big tax plan comes out wednesday.
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That'll work well when the govt shuts down on 4/28 because no one wants to fund the great wall and Trump's ego (temper tantrum) says otherwise.
Bitcoin is closing in on gold again tonight.
OMG... can no one see that which is right in front of them?
Friggin easy money.
 
vanzandt said:
That'll work well when the govt shuts down on 4/28 because no one wants to fund the great wall and Trump's ego (temper tantrum) says otherwise.
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There is that negotiating trick, ask for a lot, get something less but still pretty good. Or something like that. Trump is a big user of that
 
Daal said:
There is that negotiating trick, ask for a lot, get something less but still pretty good. Or something like that. Trump is a big user of that
More...
With or without a shutdown, which you're right....won't happen... we have this.... http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/23/politics/pentagon-north-korea/
Somethings going on over there. Trump called China and Japan tonight. That is not an ordinary course of events. Its this kind of rhetoric that portends more than meets the eye.
I would cash out at a minimum. Shorting YM tonight is gold.
 
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