Global Macro Trading Journal

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lol, I had no idea
he does it better than most by being tiny in each short but then that raises the question of whether is that worth if it at all. at 0.5%-1% position sizes, you need so many ideas every year to make it a difference to returns that it doesn't seem worth the effort/due dilligence/stress, etc etc
 
STRP is not even the worst I have seen, last year AGN took out a company for a 600% premium, TBRA. Random short squeezes also tend quite large when they happen
 
Gordon Ramsay said he will not leave his $150M fortune to his children, only 25% of a down payment for a house to each. He says they are supposed to achieve and earn things on their own. This guy is great, I think his plan is genius. The biggest expense people will ever have is housing (although in places like the US, healthcare is also up there). He will help them buy their home and then he pretty much removes most of the chance they will ever starve for the rest of their lives. I mean, if you already own your real estate, its really not hard to earn enough to pay for food and/or healthcare. A big part of the world earns almost nothing and they still manage to eat.
Entertraiment and travel are very discretionary items so they are not a problem. And even in the housing part, the person will have to help pay for it.
 
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I watched Betting on Zero last week and that tilted me to thinking that Ackman is likely to be wrong on Herbalife (I was thinking that perhaps it was a 60/40 situation). I was already fully hedged before (actually, slighly long as I purchased more HLF shares in addition to HLF calls), now I'm even considering an outright decent long position going into the May changes. It makes sense that he would get trapped into this given all the behaviors of the company, still, it does not mean its a good short. So perhaps playing for a squeeze is the way to go, I'm likely to buy more long-term calls soon
 
Two things that made me change my view
-Ackman said before the 2014 presentation (where the stock rallied 20-30% during and after it), 'there is no chance the stock will rise'
-Ackman said also 'I had never met the latin community before', I believe that was 6 months after the 2014 presentation where the stock squeezed

These things tell me that he seems too enamored with his thesis and his due dilligence is lacking
 
Visaria said:
Are you playing the outcome of the French presidential elections?
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For small players like me I'm not sure I need to. I can always react after the fact. If people like Tepper can't go big because they are afraid of the negative scenarios (as they don't have the liquidity to get out), that means that those that have the liquidity (the small players) have a certain advantage. I can realize that advantage by shorting/selling after the event
I'm quite likely to short EURs and/or EU stocks after that event (the May second round) in case there is a surprise
The alternative is to buy puts, but it seems that people are buying that like crazy
so I dunno if that is a good trade. Post Brexit and Trump, these might be sucker trades, not sure
 
Visaria said:
I'm trading the election result on a betting exchange, Betfair. Seems the easiest way. Dunno if you have access.
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I got a Betfair account, I'm just not sure I would have positive expected value on my bet there. I know so little about France and politics is so unpredictable
 
Daal , good point and agree that post results, or as the results come in through the night, is when small size has advantage. There was some great trades to be had when Brexit/Trump results were filtering in. Expect some good R/R situations with the French elections as well.

I put in my bet for LePen when I saw BBG headlines a few months ago stating she had zero chance. I think the wave of populism continues to spread to France especially considering all the BS they've gone through with terror attacks the past year or two.
 
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