Given that the GBP tanked -30% and UK assets tanked between -50% and -70%, we are talking about a staggering loss to non-GBP based investors. Thats why this scenario keeps me up at night, I already got some gold, in the future I plan to increase my diversification by adding perhaps some asian currencies, plus other safe havens
Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Good article dispelling the myth that the government didnt earn a return on its GSE investment. In fact, it was higher than all bailouts
https://seekingalpha.com/article/40...24n:b793475da582ebd461be6c51587f490e&uprof=44
"There is no way for the government can prevent preferred shareholders from getting paid for their shares; both junior preferred and senior preferred shareholders are governed by a contract, and the government will never convince a judge that their senior preferred contract should be honored but a junior preferred contract should not."
Good thing I switched to the preferreds. It has more legal protections in exchange for less upside
https://seekingalpha.com/article/40...24n:b793475da582ebd461be6c51587f490e&uprof=44
"There is no way for the government can prevent preferred shareholders from getting paid for their shares; both junior preferred and senior preferred shareholders are governed by a contract, and the government will never convince a judge that their senior preferred contract should be honored but a junior preferred contract should not."
Good thing I switched to the preferreds. It has more legal protections in exchange for less upside
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-29/you-know-its-global-debt-bubble-when
Here is a trade idea I would implement if I could, shorting these Papa Guinea bonds and buying UST bonds with the proceeds (so, a cash version of the CDS contract). Looking at the long-term history of government bonds and some parts of the book A History of Interest Rates, it seems to me that fading situations like these (when governments take advantage of bullish credit markets to issue debt they were not able to before) on average it will be a good decision. Maybe there isn't a huge positive expectation but there is likely to be some but more importantly, it would be a negatively correlated bet to the rest of my portfolio, which has a lot of longs
Here is a trade idea I would implement if I could, shorting these Papa Guinea bonds and buying UST bonds with the proceeds (so, a cash version of the CDS contract). Looking at the long-term history of government bonds and some parts of the book A History of Interest Rates, it seems to me that fading situations like these (when governments take advantage of bullish credit markets to issue debt they were not able to before) on average it will be a good decision. Maybe there isn't a huge positive expectation but there is likely to be some but more importantly, it would be a negatively correlated bet to the rest of my portfolio, which has a lot of longs
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-29/why-loan-growth-collapsing-goldman-has-one-theory
C&I loans further explained, there was a spike in late 2015 early 2016 as troubled commodity firms tapped revolvers and credit lines. In early 2017 this didn't happen, so it looks bad in a y-o-y basis. This does not signal anything meaningful about growth right now
C&I loans further explained, there was a spike in late 2015 early 2016 as troubled commodity firms tapped revolvers and credit lines. In early 2017 this didn't happen, so it looks bad in a y-o-y basis. This does not signal anything meaningful about growth right now
The problem with bearish stock market predictions in resilient economies
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32200989
Market on 'Sugar High,' While Economy Still Asleep: El-Erian
CNBC.com
Wednesday, 29 Jul 2009 | 9:37 AM ET
SPX Level: ~1000
SPX Level today: 2368 plus all the dividends, so perhaps 2600-2700 total return. And this wasn't limited to the recent period, the performance was pretty good for years after his statement
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/30/larry-summers-trump-optimism-is-a-sugar-high.html
Optimism over Trump a 'sugar high' with no signs of 3-4% economic growth, Larry Summers warns
Matthew J. Belvedere | @Matt_Belvedere
21 Hours Ago
When markets bet on good things, there is an exponential payoff if they are right, if they are wrong, losses are limited. Summers shows that despite his Phd and all the papers he has written, he does not understand the stock market
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32200989
Market on 'Sugar High,' While Economy Still Asleep: El-Erian
CNBC.com
Wednesday, 29 Jul 2009 | 9:37 AM ET
SPX Level: ~1000
SPX Level today: 2368 plus all the dividends, so perhaps 2600-2700 total return. And this wasn't limited to the recent period, the performance was pretty good for years after his statement
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/30/larry-summers-trump-optimism-is-a-sugar-high.html
Optimism over Trump a 'sugar high' with no signs of 3-4% economic growth, Larry Summers warns
Matthew J. Belvedere | @Matt_Belvedere
21 Hours Ago
When markets bet on good things, there is an exponential payoff if they are right, if they are wrong, losses are limited. Summers shows that despite his Phd and all the papers he has written, he does not understand the stock market
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PCE inflation and
Core PCE inflation
With the stock market rally/consumer sentiment at highs (and according to the Economist, some models indicate that it is equivalent to a few rate cuts), inflation at target and employment doing well, it looks quite safe that there will be 2 hikes this year. Potentially another one. There are 3 meetings with press confereces, so I would not rule out a third one at all. Its probably going to happen, it would take a lot for the Fed to pass up the chance. It could lead to regret later on
Core PCE inflation
With the stock market rally/consumer sentiment at highs (and according to the Economist, some models indicate that it is equivalent to a few rate cuts), inflation at target and employment doing well, it looks quite safe that there will be 2 hikes this year. Potentially another one. There are 3 meetings with press confereces, so I would not rule out a third one at all. Its probably going to happen, it would take a lot for the Fed to pass up the chance. It could lead to regret later on
Attachments
Bought consumer discretionary against spx. Bounced from support. Not recessionary if rising continues
http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2017/04/diversification-adaptation-and-stock-market-valuation/
I highly recommend this article. I made similar points in the past (although, I included more things than just diversification and trading costs).
I will say, however, that such logic, when overplayed, is what makes me think a US stock market bubble is not out of the cards in the coming decade
I highly recommend this article. I made similar points in the past (although, I included more things than just diversification and trading costs).
I will say, however, that such logic, when overplayed, is what makes me think a US stock market bubble is not out of the cards in the coming decade