Global Macro Trading Journal

sle said:
One of my dream destinations. Great rock climbing, great food, cheap. What else a man needs?


Yes, the old saying "it's best to be the first one of to panic" :)
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When you get to my age rock climbing is like women, a spectator sport, so good food and the people do it for me. Yeah, you see chaps in their 70s running around with 20 somethings, I wonder where they get the energy from. :)
 
Daal said:
I do have a fair amount of US/USD risk. If I'm wrong on Trump and the guy goes nuts, I could get hurt. I spend a fair amount of time thinking about US fiscal crisis risk, to me that is a far bigger risk. A 70's UK style crisis or something worse. If the US goes into a fiscal crisis, this will probably be bigger than 2008. I mean, look at Brazil, part of what is holding up the country together is the $370B in USD reserves the country has deposited in NY. If the value of that goes suspect, so does Brazil's credit. So does dozens of other countries, plus a number of banks (US and non-US that own a lot of treasuries), so does commodity prices (taking down other countries with it), and on and on. Its such a nightmarish scenario that it pays to insure against

I started this process by opening an extra account outside the US denominated in CHF. Now I need an FX broker outside the US, so I can short the USD if a crisis hits. Shorting futures or USD inside the US is just asking to be hurt by capital controls.

I need to explore two things going forward
-To find out a really good non-US broker to keep some spare cash on. I want to find out what is the "IB" of Asia. I know IB has a HK branch but I'm not sure that would be good since they are connected with the US parent. I'm open to sugestions
-To run the numbers of the US fiscal situation and see how bad it is, how soon can one expect problems to occur. I know that Druckenmiller has done some work on this and it's not pretty. The numbers seem to run around $100T-$200T vs $20T GDP. And Congress seems to clear that they wont move a finger, until they have to
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I re-read this. If you want an FX broker outside America open an account with OANDA Singapore. I have an account there simply because I trade a lot of FX and I wanted something outside America, though it is a USD account. Locally incorporated, financially independent of the US entity in the same way FXCM UK is untouched by the US action. I specifically picked Singapore because it is as good if not a better regulatory environment than America. I've worked there and came to appreciate how they do things. MFG really shook my confidence in America, it's all lipstick on a pig to be honest, because the swine still get away with murder. For the global offering that IB has, I know of none here other than prime brokers. Maybank Kim Eng is a good local broker here and has a presence in a few neighbouring countries but I don't believe the cross border transactions have materialised. I haven't checked, I keep the account for local investments.
 
Daal said:
I'm looking for an "IB" like broker in Asia, low commission, low fee, broad product universe type broker. They must also be friendly to non-Asian accounts. If anyone know, I would love to know one
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Same here if anyone knows, please share it.
I live in Asia and have been looking for a while though, haven't found it.
Yet there are strictly futures brokers which might be interesting.
Also you can keep your money invested through solid banks around the world, commissions are higher than with IB, considerably higher if you are aiming further than the local market, but if you are not trading actively through those accounts they help in a global asset allocation strategy.
 
justrading said:
I re-read this. If you want an FX broker outside America open an account with OANDA Singapore. I have an account there simply because I trade a lot of FX and I wanted something outside America, though it is a USD account. Locally incorporated, financially independent of the US entity in the same way FXCM UK is untouched by the US action. I specifically picked Singapore because it is as good if not a better regulatory environment than America. I've worked there and came to appreciate how they do things. MFG really shook my confidence in America, it's all lipstick on a pig to be honest, because the swine still get away with murder. For the global offering that IB has, I know of none here other than prime brokers. Maybank Kim Eng is a good local broker here and has a presence in a few neighbouring countries but I don't believe the cross border transactions have materialised. I haven't checked, I keep the account for local investments.
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Tks. One problem that I see is that under a US fiscal crisis a lot of banks/brokers are going to go bust. A bucket shop might be a dangerous place to be in, especially given that a lot of their clients are going to implode (like the in the CHF 2015 episode but it might be even worse than that)
 
Daal said:
Tks. One problem that I see is that under a US fiscal crisis a lot of banks/brokers are going to go bust. A bucket shop might be a dangerous place to be in, especially given that a lot of their clients are going to implode (like the in the CHF 2015 episode but it might be even worse than that)
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OANDA absorbed all client negative balances in the CHF episode. Your account was wiped out, you didn't owe them money.

Seems to me their risk management was superior to IBs, or maybe it was sheer dumb luck. Either way I have no reason to doubt them. That said, like with any broker, leave the minimum amount needed for trading. The trouble with FX is a holding is not on par with a stock holding. My broker can go bust, my shares will be there. Not the same with FX unfortunately.
 
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Daal said:
I also have dormant bank accounts in different continents, within a day or two I can have money wired to those places.
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Can one even wire money to a dormant account ?
Once an account is dormant, for several banks, it means the funds there are frozen until one show up in person in one of the local bank's branches to reactivate the account and be able to use the funds. Not sure incoming wires to that account would be accepted before it is reactivated, it's probably safer to check with the banks directly, but if anyone has experience I'd be curious to read about it.
BTW i've seen subaccounts beeing frozen after as little as 3 or 6 months inactivity, while other subaccounts in the same bank had been active, that sucks if that happens half way around the world in a country one have no plan to visit.
 
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luisHK said:
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Can one even wire money to a dormant account ?
Once an account is dormant, for several banks, it means the funds there are frozen until one show up in person in one of the local bank's branches to reactivate the account and be able to use the funds. Not sure incoming wires to that account would be accepted before it is reactivated, it's probably safer to check with the banks directly, but if anyone has experience I'd be curious to read about it.
BTW i've seen subaccounts beeing frozen after as little as 3 months inactivity, while other subaccounts in the same bank had been active, that sucks if that happens half way around the world in a country one have no plan to visit.
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I've had potentially dormant accounts reactivated with a simple ATM transaction after a notice to do so. I have an account with HSBC Singapore that has had a minimal balance for 10 years and I still get the monthly statement. When I had the same in Malaysia dormant accounts were transferred to some holding authority (Public Trustee?) and after X years transferred to some government charity fund at which point you lost the money.
 
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