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Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Here he says the 1% real neutral fed funds will have to be arrived at a lot faster if the French election goes the right way (Le Pen loses) and the US does stimulus. The market does not expect that.
Tepper is raising the possibility of a mini 1994 bond collapse (though, these are my words not his). The Fed has not communicated a faster pace of hikes like that, Tepper is talking about 'front loading' a lot of the hikes otherwise the economy could overheat and they would have to do 8 hikes next year.
I think he could be right, but even if that's wrong 60-70% of the time, since the market is really not expecting this, there might be some assymetrical bets there (like my March Fed futures hike bet). So that's something to explore, potentially getting involved shorting that 10y bond, or shorting Fed futures. I will probably get involved in the Fed futures since that is historically my best market.
SNAP borrow rate now is 88% on IB. This should come down over the next weeks as trades settle. Yet, I bet it will still be high as there will be a lot of skeptics. So maybe it goes to around 20-30% avg for the year. So a long at $23 can get $8 in income by lending out shares. Effectively, he will be long at $17.25. That is almost the same as the IPO price where people like Tepper says its a good entry.
Sometimes this stuff can be a lot more rational than it looks
Sometimes this stuff can be a lot more rational than it looks
Did I quick run down of my positions so I can figure some things out
17.6% EWZ EWZS
14% PSH
12.3% BRKB
11% 4y US T-bonds
10.43% gold. (8.7% GLD 1.73% gold stocks)
5% Brazil REITs
4.4% OAK
4.15% 30y US T-bonds
3.2% VWO (EM Stocks)
1.96% FNMAS
1.5% GREK
0.8% 30y US STRIPS
3.82% US small cap long strategy
0.88% long HLF hedge (also, small long in long-term calls)
0.7% BRL bonds
plus some BRK short puts and long VRX 2019 calls
Asset Allocation
59% stocks
5% REITs
11% short-term bonds
5% long-term bonds
10.5% gold
9.5% cash and others
Futures balance
20.88% short 10y US bond futures (small initial short while I figure out how to play the 'long rates trade')
8.1% short EUR futures (small short)
FX balance
51% BRL
46.5% USD
10.6% Gold
-8.1% EUR
At this point I'm looking to 'protect' a little of my gold and bond positions by playing the long rates trade (but only if the trade is good on its own). Also, perhaps increase some of my US equity positions if we get a pullback of some sort. I might also trim down some EWZ on a strong rally, simply to rebalance it
17.6% EWZ EWZS
14% PSH
12.3% BRKB
11% 4y US T-bonds
10.43% gold. (8.7% GLD 1.73% gold stocks)
5% Brazil REITs
4.4% OAK
4.15% 30y US T-bonds
3.2% VWO (EM Stocks)
1.96% FNMAS
1.5% GREK
0.8% 30y US STRIPS
3.82% US small cap long strategy
0.88% long HLF hedge (also, small long in long-term calls)
0.7% BRL bonds
plus some BRK short puts and long VRX 2019 calls
Asset Allocation
59% stocks
5% REITs
11% short-term bonds
5% long-term bonds
10.5% gold
9.5% cash and others
Futures balance
20.88% short 10y US bond futures (small initial short while I figure out how to play the 'long rates trade')
8.1% short EUR futures (small short)
FX balance
51% BRL
46.5% USD
10.6% Gold
-8.1% EUR
At this point I'm looking to 'protect' a little of my gold and bond positions by playing the long rates trade (but only if the trade is good on its own). Also, perhaps increase some of my US equity positions if we get a pullback of some sort. I might also trim down some EWZ on a strong rally, simply to rebalance it
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In fact, I believe the market would be undervalued according to my estimates
That's actually something that has me worried, seeing how after years of bull market during which you were very suspicious, you are now very bullish.
I'm still 60% long equities anyway although not more than 1 third of that are US equities.
How french elections' campaign affect the market might be a real issue, but the situation in France is nothing close to Brexit or US elections vote, surveys show a very large gap in the second round between Le Pen and potential opponents.
Her father made it to the second round btw decades ago, he did around 20% from memory, Marine should do better but nowhere near getting elected
That's actually something that has me worried, seeing how after years of bull market during which you were very suspicious, you are now very bullish.
You are thinking on the first level, the appearences. I was actually pretty skeptical of equities until Trump won, then I showed through numbers that it doesnt take much growth to send the market a lot higher. If long-term GDP growth inches up, SPX has an exponential sensitivity to it. Its not a opinion, bias or contrarian indicator, its pure math. Its the bears that need to provide backing for their skepticism and its them that have no margin for error
I closed EUR short on this Draghi conference. For the near term, it looks like the surprises on Europe could be to the upside, unless the fed comes out and say they will hike a lot. but in that case I will make money on Fed futures and short bonds, so no reason to expose myself to upside europe risk (for now)
I closed EUR short on this Draghi conference. For the near term, it looks like the surprises on Europe could be to the upside, unless the fed comes out and say they will hike a lot. but in that case I will make money on Fed futures and short bonds, so no reason to expose myself to upside europe risk (for now)
I loaded up last week a insurance company to my portfolio inside the eurozone. Bund yield is (and was) too god damn low based on the real interest rate. So in my point of view we will see rising eurusd and probably oil in the near future. EUR is especially quite good semi-contrarian bet. If you look how non-commercials are starting to positioning that trade could actually make sense.
PS. TLT breaking trendline starting 2011 right now.
You could be right, I got played like a rookie in getting into the trade. This thing might pop hard unless the fed drops the hammer. Draghi said something about risks being to the downside but growth risks being to the upside, to me this sounds like a man who will raise rates. This week I did something I should have done years ago, I subscribed to the print edition of the Economist. The digital edition always seem so tedious to be read entirely, but if its on paper, count me in. This will help me learn more about Europe, China and the UK (and Japan too I guess). My knowledge tends to be too US and Brazil focused so sometimes I get played in these other marketsI loaded up last week a insurance company to my portfolio inside the eurozone. Bund yield is (and was) too god damn low based on the real interest rate. So in my point of view we will see rising eurusd and probably oil in the near future. EUR is especially quite good semi-contrarian bet. If you look how non-commercials are starting to positioning that trade could actually make sense.
PS. TLT breaking trendline starting 2011 right now.