Well, you make the point. A willing deal is an enduring deal.
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Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
It took me 2 posts to get you to go ad hominen and get personal. That's a new record for me.
So mate, I'll be real fucking clear here so you can get your panties untied.
1)You started on Trump. Currency discussion about US manipulating came after your Trump post here: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/global-macro-trading-journal.215992/page-655
2)I have an anecdote too! I once saw a guy named Jesus with a long white robe. Jesus in the Bible must have been real!
The Queen is a lesbian cause I saw her kissing Kate!
@justrading you dumb wanker.
3)The only thing fucking with you is perhaps your period. Can I get you your's wifes tampon? If you are having a bad day, as evidenced by your tone, take a walk and get some gai tod. I'm not having a bad day, and this is a public board so fuck off mate. I, Daal, and any other contributors will discuss whatever we please.
So mate, I'll be real fucking clear here so you can get your panties untied.
1)You started on Trump. Currency discussion about US manipulating came after your Trump post here: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/global-macro-trading-journal.215992/page-655
2)I have an anecdote too! I once saw a guy named Jesus with a long white robe. Jesus in the Bible must have been real!
The Queen is a lesbian cause I saw her kissing Kate!
@justrading you dumb wanker.
3)The only thing fucking with you is perhaps your period. Can I get you your's wifes tampon? If you are having a bad day, as evidenced by your tone, take a walk and get some gai tod. I'm not having a bad day, and this is a public board so fuck off mate. I, Daal, and any other contributors will discuss whatever we please.
It took me 2 posts to get you to go ad hominen and get personal. That's a new record for me.
So mate, I'll be real fucking clear here so you can get your panties untied.
1)You started on Trump. Currency discussion about US manipulating came after your Trump post here: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/global-macro-trading-journal.215992/page-655
2)I have an anecdote too! I once saw a guy named Jesus with a long white robe. Jesus in the Bible must have been real!
The Queen is a lesbian cause I saw her kissing Kate!
@justrading you dumb wanker.
3)The only thing fucking with you is perhaps your period. Can I get you your's wifes tampon? If you are having a bad day, as evidenced by your tone, take a walk and get some gai tod. I'm not having a bad day, and this is a public board so fuck off mate. I, Daal, and any other contributors will discuss whatever we please.
You are so full of shit you could fill a septic tank all on your own.
Fuck off, grow up, then come back and have an adult discussion.
You can discuss whatever you please with anyone else. With me, you will discuss what I please or we will have no discussion.
LOL look at those buttons being pushed! And I know it wasn't from a trading loss either since it's Sat in BKK. What's the matter? Your wife cheat on you? The ladyboy you wanted turn you down?You are so full of shit you could fill a septic tank all on your own.
Fuck off, grow up, then come back and have an adult discussion.
You can discuss whatever you please with anyone else. With me, you will discuss what I please or we will have no discussion.
I'd expect better behavior from an elderly retired farang. Pathetic, do you spend your days at the beer bars in Nana? ROFL.
Your ego is out of control here, my offer for drinks when I'm in BKK still stands because you've helped me out, but now I'll remember to bring the tampons.
@Magna please don't it shows his true colors/emotions. If Daal and others on this board take justrading's advice, they might think twice now.
Oh, you were the shithead I helped out with a lot of research and advice on PM.LOL look at those buttons being pushed! And I know it wasn't from a trading loss either since it's Sat in BKK. What's the matter? Your wife cheat on you? The ladyboy you wanted turn you down?
I'd expect better behavior from an elderly retired farang. Pathetic, do you spend your days at the beer bars in Nana? ROFL.
Your ego is out of control here, my offer for drinks when I'm in BKK still stands because you've helped me out, but now I'll remember to bring the tampons.
Did you notice you offered drinks and I said nothing?
But its also tough for a country to go back in a trade deal. Lets say the US and a small country do a deal, they both cut tariffs in an equal proportion. A fair trade deal. Then 5 years later the country comes back and say they want to get out of the deal. Effectively, increase tariffs in a bunch of stuff. That's very anti-WTO, that country will get a lot of pressure from partners, economists. Not to mention that it would automatically give the right for the US to increase tariffs as well, it could also make the US angry and lead to further problems (and the leverage is still with the US as the biggest importer around). Could they do it anyway? Sure, but its a high hurdle. It aint as sticky like in RE but its still tough. Its different than marriage though. If you divorce, there are 3.5 other billion options out there, but in trade there is only one huge market, the USWell, you make the point. A willing deal is an enduring deal.
That is true. To renege on a deal is seriously frowned upon. Despite change in administration, the commitments of a country are held to be enduring.But its also tough for a country to go back in a trade deal. Lets say the US and a small country do a deal, they both cut tariffs in an equal proportion. A fair trade deal. Then 5 years later the country comes back and say they want to get out of the deal. Effectively, increase tariffs in a bunch of stuff. That's very anti-WTO, that country will get a lot of pressure from partners, economists. Not to mention that it would automatically give the right for the US to increase tariffs as well, it could also make the US angry and lead to further problems (and the leverage is still with the US as the biggest importer around). Could they do it anyway? Sure, but its a high hurdle. It aint as sticky like in RE but its still tough. Its different than marriage though. If you divorce, there are 3.5 other billion options out there, but in trade there is only one huge market, the US
Let me issue a correction here, I mentioned that gold as an EM hedge might not be all that great compared to UST 10y bonds because its quite volatile and USTs aren't as much. As a result, USTs provide hyperinflation/inflation protection without the day to day higher volatility of gold. I think that might very well be true but I dont have enough data to make this conclusion yet. I'm running the numbers in my Brazil database and gold vs UST 10y as hedge and the numbers are coming a lot closer than I thought it would
While 10y bonds provide more positive years, the annual standard deviation is lower with gold and the average down year is smaller with gold as well. Either way, the difference is not huge. Looking at the numbers, one could even say that gold is like owning a basket of 10yUST, US bills and US stocks. But without the need to wire money out of the country
BUT!
The issue here is that my sample is 1968 to 2016, where there are 2 big gold bull markets and 1 bear market (unless you count 2011 to today as a bear market). So this sample might be making things look better for gold than it really is. Gold in USD terms is up 7% a year compounded since 1968 to today, whereas US inflation compounded 4.17%. So gold is doing better than it should. But the same can be said about the good period for UST bonds as interest rates came down.
Also, in my data, gold has a small negative correlation to the Brazil stock market, wheareas 10y bonds, bills and US stocks have a small positive one. This might account for the help in decreasing the standard deviation and improvement in some risk metrics
Until I run this numbers with longer-term data, I cant really say that gold is worse or better than UST bonds.
Due prudence, I favor having a bit of all of them but overall, I cant say which one is better or worse historically at this point
While 10y bonds provide more positive years, the annual standard deviation is lower with gold and the average down year is smaller with gold as well. Either way, the difference is not huge. Looking at the numbers, one could even say that gold is like owning a basket of 10yUST, US bills and US stocks. But without the need to wire money out of the country
BUT!
The issue here is that my sample is 1968 to 2016, where there are 2 big gold bull markets and 1 bear market (unless you count 2011 to today as a bear market). So this sample might be making things look better for gold than it really is. Gold in USD terms is up 7% a year compounded since 1968 to today, whereas US inflation compounded 4.17%. So gold is doing better than it should. But the same can be said about the good period for UST bonds as interest rates came down.
Also, in my data, gold has a small negative correlation to the Brazil stock market, wheareas 10y bonds, bills and US stocks have a small positive one. This might account for the help in decreasing the standard deviation and improvement in some risk metrics
Until I run this numbers with longer-term data, I cant really say that gold is worse or better than UST bonds.
Due prudence, I favor having a bit of all of them but overall, I cant say which one is better or worse historically at this point