I think structurally, it makes a lot of sense to add some duration to a portfolio here. Not only yields are higher (both nominal and real) but there is the 'oversold discount'. People panicked and threw bonds away like crazy, there should be an extra theoretical return for fading an extreme like this. So that would be an 'extra yield' in the form of likely capital gains over the coming months. That and the likely volatility that should come from Trump makes is interesting to have some bonds as a hedge. Not huge amounts but as part of a 'volatility hedge' basket I think it makes sense to increase. I'm even looking around for some STRIPS, they might be a more capital efficient way to get this done
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Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Here are some interesting facts about Trump
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_affairs_of_Donald_Trump
"Of the 3,500 suits, Trump or one of his companies were plaintiffs in 1,900; defendants in 1,450; and bankruptcy, third party, or other in 150.[1] Trump was named in at least 169 suits in federal court.[2] A number of other cases (over 150) were in the Seventeenth Judicial Circuit Court of Florida (covering Broward County, Florida) since 1983.[3] In about 500 cases, judges dismissed plaintiffs' claims against Trump. In hundreds more, cases ended with the available public record unclear about the resolution.[1] Where there was a clear resolution, Trump won 451 times, and lost 38.[4]"
So he won (either outright, by dismissal) the vast majority of his civil cases. He also never faced criminal charges in his life. Yet some people will boldly claim to know every detail about Trump's mental stability. They figure out it all out he is a tyrant ready to start a global war to inflate his ego. Yet you look at this legal record, there is nothing like that. You would think someone that unstable would have a mug shot floating around, he would have physically assaulted someone, have been in criminal trials, a psychiatric history, perhaps a jail record or at LEAST a criminal indictment by some overzealous prosecutor looking to take down a big target based on little pieces of evidence. Yet he has nothing criminal on his record
All you got is a long list of civil cases that when there was resolution, he wont the vast majority. How can folks be so sure about his supposed mental instability? Is it that really, or perhaps there is something else going on, like negotiation tactics, brand building, tricks of the trade he learned and methods like that?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_affairs_of_Donald_Trump
"Of the 3,500 suits, Trump or one of his companies were plaintiffs in 1,900; defendants in 1,450; and bankruptcy, third party, or other in 150.[1] Trump was named in at least 169 suits in federal court.[2] A number of other cases (over 150) were in the Seventeenth Judicial Circuit Court of Florida (covering Broward County, Florida) since 1983.[3] In about 500 cases, judges dismissed plaintiffs' claims against Trump. In hundreds more, cases ended with the available public record unclear about the resolution.[1] Where there was a clear resolution, Trump won 451 times, and lost 38.[4]"
So he won (either outright, by dismissal) the vast majority of his civil cases. He also never faced criminal charges in his life. Yet some people will boldly claim to know every detail about Trump's mental stability. They figure out it all out he is a tyrant ready to start a global war to inflate his ego. Yet you look at this legal record, there is nothing like that. You would think someone that unstable would have a mug shot floating around, he would have physically assaulted someone, have been in criminal trials, a psychiatric history, perhaps a jail record or at LEAST a criminal indictment by some overzealous prosecutor looking to take down a big target based on little pieces of evidence. Yet he has nothing criminal on his record
All you got is a long list of civil cases that when there was resolution, he wont the vast majority. How can folks be so sure about his supposed mental instability? Is it that really, or perhaps there is something else going on, like negotiation tactics, brand building, tricks of the trade he learned and methods like that?
Of course, there are some civil cases where some women claim they were assaulted, yet no prosecutor EVER picked up in these to bring criminal charges against the guy. Probably because they knew these women were just targetting a rich guy to try to get a fat settlement, if there was really a credible story (and nothing in the track record of these women that made them suspect) you would think at LEAST ONE prosecutor would pickup a case like this. I mean, its the US we are talking about here, you dont need a air tight case, its a roll of the dice determined by a jury. It ain't that hard to win a case if its a poor against rich and you got a credible witness and some evidence. But how come it never happened?
Here are some interesting facts about Trump
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_affairs_of_Donald_Trump
"Of the 3,500 suits, Trump or one of his companies were plaintiffs in 1,900; defendants in 1,450; and bankruptcy, third party, or other in 150.[1] Trump was named in at least 169 suits in federal court.[2] A number of other cases (over 150) were in the Seventeenth Judicial Circuit Court of Florida (covering Broward County, Florida) since 1983.[3] In about 500 cases, judges dismissed plaintiffs' claims against Trump. In hundreds more, cases ended with the available public record unclear about the resolution.[1] Where there was a clear resolution, Trump won 451 times, and lost 38.[4]"
So he won (either outright, by dismissal) the vast majority of his civil cases. He also never faced criminal charges in his life. Yet some people will boldly claim to know every detail about Trump's mental stability. They figure out it all out he is a tyrant ready to start a global war to inflate his ego. Yet you look at this legal record, there is nothing like that. You would think someone that unstable would have a mug shot floating around, he would have physically assaulted someone, have been in criminal trials, a psychiatric history, perhaps a jail record or at LEAST a criminal indictment by some overzealous prosecutor looking to take down a big target based on little pieces of evidence. Yet he has nothing criminal on his record
All you got is a long list of civil cases that when there was resolution, he wont the vast majority. How can folks be so sure about his supposed mental instability? Is it that really, or perhaps there is something else going on, like negotiation tactics, tricks of the trade he learned and methods like that?
I don't think he is a tyrant or a potential dictator.
I just think he is an arsehole.
Please allow me to narrate a personal experience.
My first marriage lasted 17 years. During that time, I set up a side business. My job required me to relocate, the wife insisted I quit and do the business. I did the calculations, and told her it had not developed enough to support us. She insisted, on threat of divorce. I had 2 young children, I acquiesced because of them.
The outcome was predictable. I'll spare you the details, or rather spare myself the pain of narrating them.
My second wife gets me to do all the things I mostly wouldn't want to do, left to my druthers. I draw the line at stupidity now, there is no compromise, she understands that. But I willingly do so many things I wouldn't do left to my own devices, because she either convinces me I should, or makes me feel I would make her the happiest person on earth if I do.
Now, I regularly tell her to fuck off, and she calls me an incurable hard arse.
But mostly I try to please her.
The best way to get someone to do your bidding is to make them want to.
When it is done grudgingly, you will never get the best result.
Trust me on this, I'm speaking from 17 years experience.
Trump is used to his money buying all the things he wouldn't have otherwise, so he is blind to reality.
You shouldn't be so enamoured of him that you cannot see it.
The problem is that the world has tried to convince China to stop manipulating their currency for years, they tried to convince them to bring down barriers for years. I could go on and on. Its in the world's interest that everybody brings down trade barriers but a lot of the time there are politics involved, special interests. What these countries think they want to do is to please these groups, what Trump is proposing is to change their risk-reward equation, so they realize that ITS on their interest to do so, or they become Cuba. It would be all nice if all it took was just to sit down and talk about how David Ricardo and Adam Smith were right but this no longer seems to workI don't think he is a tyrant or a potential dictator.
I just think he is an arsehole.
Please allow me to narrate a personal experience.
My first marriage lasted 17 years. During that time, I set up a side business. My job required me to relocate, the wife insisted I quit and do the business. I did the calculations, and told her it had not developed enough to support us. She insisted, on threat of divorce. I had 2 young children, I acquiesced because of them.
The outcome was predictable. I'll spare you the details, or rather spare myself the pain of narrating them.
My second wife gets me to do all the things I mostly wouldn't want to do, left to my druthers. I draw the line at stupidity now, there is no compromise, she understands that. But I willingly do so many things I wouldn't do left to my own devices, because she either convinces me I should, or makes me feel I would make her the happiest person on earth if I do.
Now, I regularly tell her to fuck off, and she calls me an incurable hard arse.
But mostly I try to please her.
The best way to get someone to do your bidding is to make them want to.
When it is done grudgingly, you will never get the best result.
Trust me on this, I'm speaking from 17 years experience.
Trump is used to his money buying all the things he wouldn't have otherwise, so he is blind to reality.
You shouldn't be so enamoured of him that you cannot see it.
Would you care to comment? There is another article, I have difficulty finding it because it is gone from the Bangkok Post website.The problem is that the world has tried to convince China to stop manipulating their currency for years, they tried to convince them to bring down barriers for years. I could go on and on. Its in the world's interest that everybody brings down trade barriers but a lot of the time there are politics involved, special interests. What these countries think they want to do is to please these groups, what Trump is proposing is to change their risk-reward equation, so they realize that ITS on their interest to do so, or they become Cuba. It would be all nice if all it took was just to sit down and talk about how David Ricardo and Adam Smith were right but this no longer seems to work
http://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahsu...s-china-battles-capital-outflow/#1f9e78e52fa7
I'm not an expert on Chinese macro, I guess they dont want the RMB to collapse quickly to avoid even greater problems in terms of trade blow back, social problems, financial stability etc. But they have been steadily depreciating it since 2013. GDP growth fell bellow 10% in 2011 and have since declined further. It appears that their FX policy of steady depreciation is part of their plan to help with their soft landing.Would you care to comment? There is another article, I have difficulty finding it because it is gone from the Bangkok Post website.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahsu...s-china-battles-capital-outflow/#1f9e78e52fa7
There is a bit of sweet revenge in this though, they didnt let it appreciate much on the good years due being in a fixed FX type regime but now they dont get the benefits of a quick depreciation in bad times which could help the recovery faster. I suppose they could just devalue it hard but the world would be pretty pissed, especially with the rise of nationalism
I must agree with your last sentence.I'm not an expert on Chinese macro, I guess they dont want the RMB to collapse quickly to avoid even greater problems in terms of trade blow back, social problems, financial stability etc. But they have been steadily depreciating it since 2013. GDP growth fell bellow 10% in 2011 and have since declined further. It appears that their FX policy of steady depreciation is part of their plan to help with their soft landing.
There is a bit of sweet revenge in this though, they didnt let it appreciate much on the good years due being in a fixed FX type regime but now they dont get the benefits of a quick depreciation in bad times which helps the recovery. I suppose they could just devalue it hard but the world would be pretty pissed, especially with the rise of nationalism
I'm just an avid reader of stuff, no claim to fame.
Could you explain to me in simple terms, why given all America had done to weaken its currency, it isn't deemed to be the biggest currency manipulator on earth?
China is.
Interest rates affect exchange rates as much as futile pegs and bands. So too printing money.
But you know all that.
Probably because of what is going on right now with the USD at multi-year highs. They let it float, the market takes it to whatever it wants to take it. Not to say that the US wasnt attacked when QE was going on, they were. But at least the US takes on both sides of the coin, whatever happens, happens. I'm not seeing much in terms of talk to intervene the USD down to boost exports. If anything the Fed is signaling more hikesI must agree with your last sentence.
I'm just an avid reader of stuff, no claim to fame.
Could you explain to me in simple terms, why given all America had done to weaken its currency, it isn't deemed to be the biggest currency manipulator on earth?
China is.
Interest rates affect exchange rates as much as futile pegs and bands. So too printing money.
But you know all that.