Global Macro Trading Journal

Mondelez +9% after hours on rumored Kraft Heinz interest
Dec. 14, 2016 4:25 PM ET|About: The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC)|By: Stephen Alpher, SA News Editor

Citing a "very well-informed" source, Switzerland's Bilanz magazine says Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) is putting together a bid for Mondelez (NASDAQ:MDLZ).

As is 3G's norm, a purchase of MDLZ would likely mean big cost (job) cuts.

MDLZ +8.8%, KHC +2% after hours.
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Big Ackman holding
Recently Ackman refused to answer if 3G was putting together a fund to buyout MDLZ
MDLZ at $47 now. Thing hit as high as $53!
 
Lemann from 3G lives in Switzerland and the leak is coming from a Swiss magazine. Makes me think there is credibility to this
 
According to my calcs here, almost 1/3 of PSQ exposure is in MDLZ. With PSH (public stock) is a little more because of the leverage. If this buyout does happen, it will be a big gain for Ackman
 
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Daal said:
According to my calcs here, almost 1/3 of PSQ exposure is in MDLZ. With PSH (public stock) is a little more because of the leverage. If this buyout does happen, it will be a big gain for Ackman
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Let me correct this, its most like 20-22% because most of the exposure comes from OTC ITM call options. He didnt had to put down as much an outright position. Ackman seemed to know that this buyout was going to happen in a few years (hence making it better to use calls instead of stock). He is an investor in 3G. Is this insider trading? I dont think so, the thesis was a multi-year one and he told the world about it (making all the info public)
 
If the buyout does happen, I suspect the premium will be around 30%. Its not so small (like 20%) that it encourages shareholders to say no and try to bank more from MDLZ 2018 cost cutting plans but it is big enough to entice them to say yes. They seem to be afraid of Trump, Trump made some negative comments about the company in the past. Plus Ackman would like a buyout to help his performance and stop the withdraw bleed. This would price the purchase at $55-$57
I added a little at $45.30s after-hours, I figure my risk is around $2 (today's close) and reward is $10-$12. We will see, I might add some more if the price hovers around low levels and there is no significant bad news
 
MDLZ tried to buyout HSY so they would become very big and make it hard for them to get bought themselves. These people know they will lose their jobs if 3G acquires them, they are desperate. I believe that is why some folks came out to deny any talks so quick. Of course they are not in talks, if the Swiss magazine is right, 3G is putting things together to put a bid out, thats when they will start to talk. And MDLZ wont like it because the CEO wants to keep his pay. I'm a buyer on weakness today
 
A risk to this trade is that KHC doesnt seem to have much cash. About $4B, Buffett is rumored to help the financing but still its likely it will be a mostly stock with only limited cash deal. MDLZ market cap is over $60B. The stock deals depend on what the market thinks about the deal, sometimes the pop is limited due market skepticism. So far, the market likes it, KHC is up
 
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So the Fed comes out and put another rate hike for 2017. And Yellen sounded tough on fiscal policy, suggesting it wasnt welcomed. People freaked out and sold stocks. Well, today all the losses are reversed and the Dow is flirting with 20k. Once again, the default answer (buy or keep holding your longs) was the right answer. You got to save the sells/shorts for really strong signals. If you get scared out easily you are going to burn yourself to death with spreads, commissions, slippage, taxes, etc
 
A strong signal example, from a different market: IF yesterday treasuries got beaten initially by the Fed but then proceeded to reverse and make a new high on the day. This is the type of reversal signal usually means something big is about to happen. Its the classic Market Wizards market tone reversal. But until one gets one of these, you are better off sticking with what you got
 
I suppose Gold did one of those after Trump got elected. During the night it soared, then the next day it went down. The day after that, it really went down. That was the signial. If gold couldnt rally on Trump, then it couldnt rally on anything. I ligthened up on it on that signal but I wish I had sold more. Heck, I probably should have shorted. I will try to pay attention more to these signals to put trades on. Both gold and treasuries are now on watch for a bounce. If they put a classic reversal like that, I hope I'm brave enough to buy them
 
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