Global Macro Trading Journal

Obama pulled shit like haircutting GM secured bondholders, and the GSE networth sweep. Now guys with a different take on what the rule of law is, are going to take over the executive branch
 
I believe that by and large there are going to be 2 kinds of people dealing with the Trump corporate bonanza fest. The ones that will complain and cry about the 1%, about how it is all unfair as they watch wealth being created all around them and the ones who will profit from this and will join that 1%
 
I bought some SPY today, and I'm looking to buy more on dips. Its based on the idea of 2300+ SPX. Stop around 2180-2160 on the SPX
 
Daal said:
The valuation of FNMA FMCC if shareholders are allow to own 20% of the company are around $20 bucks a share each. Of course, this might get settled for less than 20%. But still, it will be a good win for longs
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$20 per share seems high, given that the govt has warrants to buy 79.9% of the companies. But you probably know more about the situation than me!

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m22au said:
$20 per share seems high, given that the govt has warrants to buy 79.9% of the companies. But you probably know more about the situation than me!

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Keep in mind that the stock used to trade at $60-$70, and they are much bigger players in the mortgage market now. Even with gov exercising and selling their shares, 20% of this company is worth a lot
 
Here are some of the upside case for the stock
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Goverment stands to make HUGE money by privatizing. Will help fund Trump's bonanza. Much better than to keep collecting $10-$20b per year from networth sweep, that wont help much with the deficit or for persuading Paul Ryan to do the fiscal fest, a big pile of cash will. Gov will prefer to get all that cash upfront by selling a valuable stake than to collect income. ESPECIALLY given that Trump has to win reelection in a few years
 
Daal said:
Here are some of the upside case for the stock
View attachment 168474

Goverment stands to make HUGE money by privatizing. Will help fund Trump's bonanza. Much better than to keep collecting $10-$20b per year from networth sweep, that wont help much with the deficit or for persuading Paul Ryan to do the fiscal fest, a big pile of cash will. Gov will prefer to get all that cash upfront by selling a valuable stake than to collect income. ESPECIALLY given that Trump has to win reelection in a few years
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Thanks Daal, I started a FNMA / FMCC thread and I'll add a link to your post in that thread.
 
If it turns out that Ackman is right about FNMA and it goes to $10+, that should lead to a flow into the PSH stock and the discount to NAV will narrow. Thats why its so attractive to buy it at 15-20% discounts, its almost sure that he will run hot again in the future. At the point the discount comes in and you make an extra profit

Furthermore he is known for unlocking value out of companies, if the discount persists, at some point he will go active in his own company and find a way to narrow that gap. Its certaintly a bad bet to think he will fail to do what he gets companies to do it all the time
 
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