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Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Icahn looking like he wants to jump out of HLF
"http://www.wsj.com/articles/carl-ic...to-group-that-included-bill-ackman-1472198581"
Ackman "only signaled willingness to buy a small portion of the stake, one person said."
So he covers a bit and gets the confidence destroying effect of having the biggest backer of the firm (and the board members) bail out
"http://www.wsj.com/articles/carl-ic...to-group-that-included-bill-ackman-1472198581"
Ackman "only signaled willingness to buy a small portion of the stake, one person said."
So he covers a bit and gets the confidence destroying effect of having the biggest backer of the firm (and the board members) bail out
Carl Icahn doubled down, not on HLF but on market manipulation
he said 'I have never given Jefferies an order to sell any of our Herbalife shares.'. He is just being misleading, he obviously ordered them to shop for bids, but just for the price. This after having distorted the FTC statements and pumped the stock on the day of the settlement. If he indeed asked for Jeffries to shop for bids, simply so he could buy more cheaper, the SEC should look into this because that is very close to market manipulation
he said 'I have never given Jefferies an order to sell any of our Herbalife shares.'. He is just being misleading, he obviously ordered them to shop for bids, but just for the price. This after having distorted the FTC statements and pumped the stock on the day of the settlement. If he indeed asked for Jeffries to shop for bids, simply so he could buy more cheaper, the SEC should look into this because that is very close to market manipulation
Though it wouldn't be fun in the short-term, I'm starting to think that for most people, a fed induced stock and bond market decline is probably the best thing that could happen for investors at this point in time
Its extremely worrying the level of financial asset valuations, not only in the US but around the world. If this momentum trade continues for years with inpunity, anyone who has income and plans to deploy part of it into financial assets over the next 10-20 years will be buying assets with low implied returns (due valuations and complacent sentiment). So even though their current portfolio will keep doing decently, his future investments will earn less than what they could earn. If someone has a large portfolio and little or no income, then this concern doesnt apply. This person wants to full blown bubble so he can cash out at the top as a very wealthy person. But for most folks with income and a non-huge portfolio, a continuation of this trend is very worrying.
A good fall in stocks and bonds will enable them to deploy savings at good implied returns. If things go into a bubble, even after they crash, the implied returns wont be that attractive (unless the crash is just humongous)
This is something that I have been thinking about a lot lately. Most people are 'short' stocks and bonds due to the fact that they intend to deploy savings into them in the future. This 'short' at this point in time is at a very dangerous point. I believe one of the reasons that US stocks and bonds just keep plowing up is because of a squeeze of people that are 'short' like that (along with people that a short because they are benchmarked to indexes and things like that). The Fed could stop this short squeeze, I hope they do. It wont be fun to have a drawdown in my current investments, but over the long-term I will be much better off
Its extremely worrying the level of financial asset valuations, not only in the US but around the world. If this momentum trade continues for years with inpunity, anyone who has income and plans to deploy part of it into financial assets over the next 10-20 years will be buying assets with low implied returns (due valuations and complacent sentiment). So even though their current portfolio will keep doing decently, his future investments will earn less than what they could earn. If someone has a large portfolio and little or no income, then this concern doesnt apply. This person wants to full blown bubble so he can cash out at the top as a very wealthy person. But for most folks with income and a non-huge portfolio, a continuation of this trend is very worrying.
A good fall in stocks and bonds will enable them to deploy savings at good implied returns. If things go into a bubble, even after they crash, the implied returns wont be that attractive (unless the crash is just humongous)
This is something that I have been thinking about a lot lately. Most people are 'short' stocks and bonds due to the fact that they intend to deploy savings into them in the future. This 'short' at this point in time is at a very dangerous point. I believe one of the reasons that US stocks and bonds just keep plowing up is because of a squeeze of people that are 'short' like that (along with people that a short because they are benchmarked to indexes and things like that). The Fed could stop this short squeeze, I hope they do. It wont be fun to have a drawdown in my current investments, but over the long-term I will be much better off
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For that reason, I'm considering not hedging too much against a fall in assets due Fed hikes. I'm short a little bit of fed futures and SPY but thats it. Just by the fact that I have a lot of cash and low risk bonds, plus all the future income I plan to invest, already makes me a beneficiary of a potential collapse in assets.
Also, daytrading tends to have more opportunities with a high VIX, so thats another benefit
Also, daytrading tends to have more opportunities with a high VIX, so thats another benefit
If Jefferies soliciting bids moved the price and Icahn used the dip to buy more, that would be very much like mkt manipulation, indeed. However, I was under the impression that HLF moved because of Ackman's claim, so I am not really sure how Icahn is to blame. Moreover, Jefferies denied that they were given an order to sell.Carl Icahn doubled down, not on HLF but on market manipulation
he said 'I have never given Jefferies an order to sell any of our Herbalife shares.'. He is just being misleading, he obviously ordered them to shop for bids, but just for the price. This after having distorted the FTC statements and pumped the stock on the day of the settlement. If he indeed asked for Jeffries to shop for bids, simply so he could buy more cheaper, the SEC should look into this because that is very close to market manipulation
'an order to sell', thats where they are being lawery. Icahn asked Jefferies to shop around (I dont think they would go around using Icahn's name without permission), he probably knew full well that this would leak out. regardless of whether there was an order to execute or not, he wanted to given an impression of being a seller while trying to buy. Thats what spoofers doIf Jefferies soliciting bids moved the price and Icahn used the dip to buy more, that would be very much like mkt manipulation, indeed. However, I was under the impression that HLF moved because of Ackman's claim, so I am not really sure how Icahn is to blame. Moreover, Jefferies denied that they were given an order to sell.
I think he tried to sell. Couldn't. Got pissed at ackmans comments and bought more just to fuck with ackman. It's not a lot of money relative to his net worth and hlf is a battleground for the battle of two billionaires egos.