Global Macro Trading Journal

Pretty good recovery in the Ackman fund from $13 to $16.40 a share. I took advantage of the narrowing of the discount to NAV to sell some that I bought at the panicky discount. Stocks are getting to the top end of their range and I want some bullets to buy back if VRX drops a bomb
I bought 15y USTs with the cash
 
Brazil is a true shit show right now. One guy (interim president of the lower house) tried to reverse the 2/3 majority vote of the lower house (the highest requirement in the constitution, even higher than changes in the constitution that require 3/5) by himself without even consulting the lower house or the judicial comittee of that house. He did that on his opinion of technicalities of the day of the vote. The matter voted was the acceptance of the impeachment of the president

He was quickly supported by defenders of the government, the same ones who call the impeachment a 'coup'. But somehow they don't see the irony of defending a guy trying to reverse that kind of important vote

The Senate promptly ignored that unilateral decision and decided that the impeachment goes on
 
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On developed countries, the politicians have the common sense of resigning when things become uncontrollable or they are caught breaking laws (like the PM of Iceland that did even before any confidence vote). But in Brazil, these fuckers try to squeeze power until the last minute. They will pull any chicanery or delay to stay around for a little bit longer. Its really sad
 
And the thing is, she KNOWS she will fall in the impeachment vote. But they still try any kind of delay, chicanery, fillibuster type move in order to stay around a little bit longer

There is simply zero respect for the economy, the political system or the rule of law
 
On a lighter note, as you are currently based there(I assume Rio), would you recommend someone travel to Brazil taking advantage of the weaker real? You can always PM me.

And to keep on topic, I'm looking heavily at Dec 17 Fed Funds as per an idea you brought up. I can't see where the Fed doesn't raise at least once by then, making current entry prices attractive. I just don't see a bear mkt in US mkts given the data coming out.
 
jj90 said:
On a lighter note, as you are currently based there(I assume Rio), would you recommend someone travel to Brazil taking advantage of the weaker real? You can always PM me.

And to keep on topic, I'm looking heavily at Dec 17 Fed Funds as per an idea you brought up. I can't see where the Fed doesn't raise at least once by then, making current entry prices attractive. I just don't see a bear mkt in US mkts given the data coming out.
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I believe the real will go back to 4 (but perhaps will rally short-term). Up to you if you want to risk it going higher or lower. I'm not sure a 10% change in the cost should matter much in deciding this, most of the expense will be in the airplane ticket which is more tied to the USD. Hotels and food will be really cheap for a USD based turist (assuming you shop around a bit for prices)

I'm in small short the Jan 2017 Fed futures contract, I'm debating adding to this but I don't know at this point. I do think we get one hike so there is a 'free shot' at a second one.

But the way the Fed is behaving, every hike is a 'first hike' so they build all this antecipation and make a huge deal out of it. When they hike again I'm not sure they will want to do another one right away. It will depend on the market reaction, which is a bit unpredictable. The odds favor a negative reaction, which means a delay on the second hike and a whole 'new first hike' cycle again. These tend to last for months
 
Just to give an idea about the costs in Brazil. I live in Sao Paulo and spend around $14K USD a year (before vacation expenses). Thing is, I'm not a big spender and live in a small apartment. But I'm planning to move (or even buy) a bigger place and spend more. But even then, my yearly cost is likely to be less than $16K a year before vacation expenses

In my city (and in Rio as well) an income of $2K USD a month is a good income that one can live pretty comfortably

I spend about $220 a month in food and $350 in rent. Brazil is pretty cheap if you know the tricks
 
Even though I'm short end of the curve bear, I view this minutes with skepticism. Its hard for the Fed to hike without the Fed futures markets pricing in a 70%+ chance. For that it would take a Yellen speech where she says they are going to move. But its hard to her to say that without more data (and thats what the minutes are saying), if more data comes out and its supportive is she going to rush out and say 'june hike guys!'? I dont think so, it would be too rushed, more likely they will warn markets and then drop the hawkish bomb in june via a statement phrase ('in deciding on whether to raise rates at the next meeting'), just like they did in the first hike

But the problem is that the July meeting (the next meeting after June) doesn't have a press conference. Maybe they will add one so they can do it (and this would signal the hike for everybody, therefore 'preparing' the markets). The first hike seem to be on the table big time, the second one is a possibility so I'm still short small Jan ZQ 2017.

A lot of this will depend on the market reaction. If stocks go bellow 2000 because of the hike, then hikes are off the time again. At least for a few months

Its a tough game to try to figure this all out.
 
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