Global Macro Trading Journal

Here are some sites that I vist. Now keep in mind that I'm not very active in the macro game so I read a lot less than I used. You probably want to add the WSJ and the economist to thelist

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=spx&insttype=&freq=&show=

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=spy&insttype=&freq=&show=

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=tlt&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=7

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=ief&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=7

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=iei&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=7

http://www.bloomberg.com/quickview/

http://www.zerohedge.com/

http://www.businessinsider.com/clusterstock

http://www.marketfolly.com/

http://brontecapital.blogspot.com.br/

http://blog.themistrading.com/

http://www.internationalman.com/

http://www.valor.com.br/

http://macro-man.blogspot.com.br/

http://www.ekathimerini.com/business

http://brazilianlawblog.blogspot.com.br/

https://twitter.com/mercenaryjack

http://www.infomoney.com.br/

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/newsletters/2015/articles

http://www.financista.com.br/

https://www.aqr.com/cliffs-perspective

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/

http://www.nytimes.com/pages/business/economy/index.html?src=busfn

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com.br/

http://quantifiableedges.com/blog/

http://online.barrons.com/mdc/public/page/9_3063-economicCalendar.html

http://economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big/

http://www.newslocker.com/en-us/new...-as-buying-sentiment-spikes-builder-magazine/

http://business.financialpost.com/author/natpostblogsdrosenbergnp

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

http://www.themoneyillusion.com/

https://www.dailyfx.com/calendar

http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/
 
There is also a bunch of brazilian econ sites that I visit because most of my macro these days is done by "force". I'm forced to be involved in brazil forecasting because my income is in USD and a good portion of my costs are in BRL. I tend to have to have an opinion on the exchange rate to decide how much hedging its appropriate for me to do
 
Thank you very very much for all the info.

A last question:

Do you read any of the forecasts/outlooks that big banks/investment firms post like Blackrock, UBS, Morgan Stanley etc? They usually post for free some stuff for each year or even quarter. Is there any actual value in those reports?
 
pacers said:
Thank you very very much for all the info.

A last question:

Do you read any of the forecasts/outlooks that big banks/investment firms post like Blackrock, UBS, Morgan Stanley etc? They usually post for free some stuff for each year or even quarter. Is there any actual value in those reports?
More...

I like when that stuff gets posted on ZH, not because I think their forecasts are great but because they usually compile a lot of macro data in just one file so you can get an idea of the big picture.

Also, I'd suggest you take a look at the Dalio 30 min video where he talks about the economic machine. It took me years to see that video as I kept postponing because I was already familiar with his ideas. When I finally did I was impressed how easy he made it for everyone to understand the economic/credit cycles, its very good

There is one thing that it could potentially be wrong on his views, which is the idea that central banks can 'run out of bullets', what he calls pushing on a string. Guys like Scott Sumner argue that this is not the case and he makes some good points on why that is. Who is right? I don't know but one doesn't have to know everything perfectly about economics to make money.

As I see, you just got to run a nice passive portfolio and ocassionally find something that is mispriced with a good risk-reward and then bet on it (With more risk than 1% if the bet is really good) and that's it. Its easier said than done (after all, you have to be right on those ocassional bets) but if the passive portfolio is well build and the trader sticks to good risk reward macro bets, then he is idiot proofing his trading. Even if he is wrong often, the good risk reward can make up for that and the passive risk party porfolio can keep him from forcing trades while producing a good low volatility yearly return
 
Here is a relevant quote from O'shea that influenced my thinking

oshea.png
 
That was my mistake in 2009. That and a position sizing model adjustment that I realize one has to make (sizing your positions in relation to sentiment, never be big in the direction of the sentiment)
 
I put some shorts in too large a size in March and April that I should never have (or if I did, I should have done in small size, because I was going in the direction of big extreme in negative sentiment)

Same thing can be applied to cutting back bullish positions in big positive sentiment markets
 
This is partially why even though I own some stocks, I would never be fully invested or even go above 50%. My position sizing model tells me to be big when sentiment is terrible, now its actually good and markets have been up for years so its not the time to 'invest and get rich' like Buffett says
 
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