Global Macro Trading Journal

With markets down here, the talk start to be of how big of a pause the Fed should stay on. Whole thing is a joke, both the fed and economists are driven by ES, even if they will pretend/think their motivations are driven by econ data
 
Question now is at what level of the SPX does the Fed comes out saying they are not really sure about 4 hikes this year and this and that econ number is not good enough. I believe 1900-1950 is about right. Heck, they are probably having second thoughts already but if this markets flushes some more that will probably do it for the doves and semi-doves

Will the market react and push up hard like it always does? Probably, until proven otherwise that is the most likely case. With that in mind another possibility is a bear market where promises of no hikes fail to push stocks. Its a possbility becayse one has to remember that no Fed policy can prevent bear markets from happening ever again
 
I guess the most important question is if the China Govt can stop the slump in China´s mrkt. Considering the social impact in China with this drop I bet the Chinese Govt will try everything they can to stop this movement.
 
I'm a seller of BRKB puts on this open. AAPL is also an interesting pick for a market flush. I haven't done any work in the stock sinde 2013 when I was posting about it on SA. Maybe I should. Thing is, from the decline to $700 down to that low, the stock went a lot lower than most people thought. This being a FANG holding, it might just get hammered badly. Specially given the bad iphone news. Long-term though, its probably still good. One would just have to figure out what would happen to earnings if people stopped changing phones like they change shoes. A lot of their revenue are from this
 
Thats the thing, most people don't need a new smartphone, specially the ones that are higher priced and tend to last (as the iphones). Once people start to figure that out, AAPL will go to a new normal of expectations, that might just be the buy point for it
 
The stock is still decently priced though. At about 10 earnings, as a long as they don't go into an outright decline, it is still cheaper than most others US stocks. Thats what one would have to figure out, is it possible that the whole smartphone thing will go into a multi year retrenchment where people stop buying and replacing it like crazy? because if they don't, the stock is pretty cheap. The technique (along with BRKB), is to buy when everybody hates the stock and sell when everybody wants it. You don't even need to be right about the long-term as a long as you get an rush into the stock in the future, you bank
 
Thats why I dismiss the 'brkb has underformed the S&P500 over the last 10 years' argument. The S&P500 has outperformed by becoming more and more expensive and dangerous. BRKB has lagged its growth of intrinsic value. Its getting close to the point where Buffett is a buyer. Downside much more limited compared to the S&P500 which could just implode or do god knows what
 
Daal said:
I'm a seller of BRKB puts on this open. AAPL is also an interesting pick for a market flush. I haven't done any work in the stock sinde 2013 when I was posting about it on SA. Maybe I should. Thing is, from the decline to $700 down to that low, the stock went a lot lower than most people thought. This being a FANG holding, it might just get hammered badly. Specially given the bad iphone news. Long-term though, its probably still good. One would just have to figure out what would happen to earnings if people stopped changing phones like they change shoes. A lot of their revenue are from this
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Aapl isn't a fang. The a is for amazon.
 
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