Global Macro Trading Journal

[JB3]

I think VRX is going to be fine legally.

They can't sell into California per some lawsuit that they lost, so Valeant buys an option to acquire specialty pharmacies that sells in California and to circumvent the California ban. So for now, they can claim they don't own these specialty pharmacies, and continue to use these pharmacies to sell into California. I think it is a giant legal loophole that they are trying to use, and one that California might be wise enough to close down.

But other than that, I don't see an Enron structure that is paying itself with fake entities.

 

[Daal]

Ackman announces call to discuss VRX. I wouldn't want to be short this. He can talk openly about it as he has no legal issues like management has which means he can address everything and speculate about what is going on. The story provided by him, if markets find credible, will clear the uncertainty. As I said, its a shitty short setup, I'm not sure why so many people were salivating all over this

 

[CH1973]

Daal a good risk/reward bet for a hawkish FOMC is a 2000 SPX Put for this friday. I bought today at $1.60 and if you are right and FOMC surprises the mrkt I believe SPX will take a big hit... Just to add to the picture, take a look at http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/25/october-doldrums-history-says-a-terrible-trading-week-is-ahead.html

 

[Daal]

Daal a good risk/reward bet for a hawkish FOMC is a 2000 SPX Put for this friday. I bought today at $1.60 and if you are right and FOMC surprises the mrkt I believe SPX will take a big hit... Just to add to the picture, take a look at http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/25/october-doldrums-history-says-a-terrible-trading-week-is-ahead.html

Its an idea but I rather to go to the fed funds market directly. I find it more rational than equities

 

[CH1973]

Its an idea but I rather to go to the fed funds market directly. I find it more rational than equities

Cant disagree with you, rates are much more rational than equities, this is why I like to use options in this bets

 

[Daal]

Macro Man makes some points on why the Fed might not be hawkish
http://macro-man.blogspot.com.br/2015/10/just-in-case.html

Its hard to have a strong view either way. I'm short Jan Fed futures mostly as a hedge

 

[Daal]

I shorted SPY, IEF (bonds) and more fed futures into the hawkish statement but I will manage this like a day trade. The surprise might play out over the next hours/days

 

[Daal]

Had to cover the IEF , 30y is very strong into this sign that the trade won't work there

 

[Daal]

I guess I should have shorted Gold instead. it tends to move more predictably off the Fed. I always forget that

 

[CH1973]

Nice Call