Global Macro Trading Journal

romik said:
What if the numbers aren't true? Fixed to look positive.
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I'm sure they fiddle around with the numbers a bit but overall they are likely to be accurate. Its not like the chinese figures that they put once, never revise and it also doesn't match some of the data 'on the ground'. if the US figures were off by a lot from stuff like trade data/retail sales, tax revenues, etc then it would be a pretty big scandal
 
Well, I am not saying they are lying, I believe the way they adjust the data is not how we think about it in a more straightforward way. Example would be do you think actual unemployment in the US is 5%?
 
romik said:
Well, I am not saying they are lying, I believe the way they adjust the data is not how we think about it in a more straightforward way. Example would be do you think actual unemployment in the US is 5%?
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it depends how you define 'actual unemployment', the government has a number of different rates using different assumptions
 
In the widely reported unemployment rate (U-3), the BLS only counts those who have looked for a job in the past four weeks as unemployed. They're included in the labor force, because their jobless situation is only temporary (hopefully).

Once they haven't looked for a job in the past four weeks are no longer counted as unemployed or in the labor force. They are added to a group the BLS calls marginally attached.

http://useconomy.about.com/od/suppl1/f/real_unemployment_rate.htm
 
I started to buy Ackman's pershing fund that trades in Amsterdan. Even if VRX goes to $0 (which is a huge if), his drawdown will still be smaller than in 2008 (in fact, a lot smaller if you consider his peak to through in 2009. And yet, almost half is capital is now permanent (not subject to withdraws) because its a public stock. Ackman 'going bust' is only likely in the minds of demented folks like ZeroHedge

I'm not going crazy on it yet. Just a 2.5% position but I will add more if US equities correct more and valuations become more decent. Probably all the way to a 10-15% position
 
Furthermore most of the VRX move yesterday was the result of a erroneous report. That stock is either worth $250+ or $0. with the mispricing of yesterday its a good point go get in (indirectly). Decent R/R
 
I also bought Brasil gov bonds denominated in USD. 2024, yields 6%. Total $USD BR debt is $30B, FX reserves is $670B+. It simply does not make sense to default in them. I can go into the many margins of safey that these bonds have if anyone wants. There is a lot of them, I really think this debt will be money good. 6% yields minus the Fed target of 2%, equals 4% real returns. Thats what the idiots chasing the S&P500 a shooting for these days so its pretty good

I stil have a good amount of 10Y UST bonds (25% position), so if risk assets tumble, this will cushion the blow and allow me to swap these bonds into good assets on the cheap
 
Ackman fund up 10% in 24 hours, BR bonds also up on this central bank ease fest. Those were small positions however, I really missed the SPY long yesterday and EUR short. The ECB ease caught me of guard, I don't follow EU stuff all that much. The playbook to play a QE announcement is to buy the stock market and buy every dip on the first day. Hold for 2-3 days. Short the currency and hold for 2-3 days as well. I learned that from the US QE but I didn't pull the trigger yesterday
 
Sorry to intrude. Just want to say I love reading your journal and your fundamental thoughts. It is a bit of fresh air when compared to the other journals.
 
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