Global Macro Trading Journal

I missed the EWZ bounce, real shame. I tried to bounce it every day this week. Including this morning but it kept acting weak so I dumped. Then I left my desk for 3 hours and of course, it bounced huge. Story of my life
 
Daal said:
BZF is complicated because you got to pay 7% a year to short that. Matter of fact, from the long side its an interest thing to own bceause you get paid 12% (in the form of capital gains) + the IB short rebate of 50% of short fees, so effectively a 15% yield (though, it wont be lent all the time).

Maybe one can use the futures, I'm not sure what is the spread on this daily. If its tight enough then you can rollover the contracts without paying much. Then you can short the contract and short USD/CAD-AUD-NZD. But it might not be a cheap trade if you consider trading costs. Thats why i don't like to chase
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Just found out that IG Markets offers USD/BRL contracts:
http://www.ig.com/uk/ig-forex/usd-brl

You can hedge the Refco / MF Global / FXCM risk by shorting IGG.L if something bad happens:
http://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/igg.l
http://www.iggroup.com/corporate/shareholder_admin.html

.
 
m22au said:
Just found out that IG Markets offers USD/BRL contracts:
http://www.ig.com/uk/ig-forex/usd-brl

You can hedge the Refco / MF Global / FXCM risk by shorting IGG.L if something bad happens:
http://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/igg.l
http://www.iggroup.com/corporate/shareholder_admin.html

.
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Cool. Any idea on what is the implied interest rate that this BRL is offering? Since the CHF fiasco some FX shops have cut down interest payments and increase costs dramatically. I used to love Oanda but now the carry and costs are made the broker almost useless
 
Daal said:
Since the CHF fiasco some FX shops have cut down interest payments and increase costs dramatically. I used to love Oanda but now the carry and costs are made the broker almost useless
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I noticed the same with Oanda. Have you switched brokers? I've been thinking of Dukascopy, not sure what the situation is there.
 
justrading said:
I noticed the same with Oanda. Have you switched brokers? I've been thinking of Dukascopy, not sure what the situation is there.
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No. I haven't had the need to put on a FX position on a while. When that happens I will probably use futures or FX at IB, maybe even EFTs. If there are more good brokers out there that still pay good interest I would love to know
 
I mentioned the idea of shorting BRL against AUD/CAD/NZD but not I'm not so sure I will put the trade on. This was such a ridiculous panic that things could settle down for a while. BRL is up another 2% today. I have never seen so many people cluless about the markets talking about the real (or any market) on facebook before. This could have been a significant bottom. Shorting now could be dangerous or it might work. I'm not just sure either way
 
luisHK said:
A question actually about bond interests for offshore traders, I thought at least the corporate bond interest payments were hit by a 30% witholding tax. Is that not the case ?
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No 30% withholding for bond interest. At least not for bonds that are 'registered' or some IRS term like that. I'm long USTs (but I plan to 'chase' duration soon as some of my brokers don't pay interest and don't allow bond buying) and I never pay any tax. Bank interest is also exempt. Bond interest from ETFs USED to be exempt but that expired in 2014 and it was not extended. Harry Reid tried to extend that if you can believe that
Short-term capital gains exemptions from ETFs also appear to have expired on 2014. This could have some significant implications if you are long ETFs
 
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