Global Macro Trading Journal

And in an unrelated note, its utterly hilarious what is going on in the Chinese stock market. first the halts, now the quasi ban on short selling, ala 2008 in the US
 
Daal said:
And in an unrelated note, its utterly hilarious what is going on in the Chinese stock market. first the halts, now the quasi ban on short selling, ala 2008 in the US
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Not a ban on short selling, but rather a ban on LONG selling!!
 
Got the small short on GREK, now lets see if they get out over the weekend or before. If they don't, I might have to cover monday, will depend on the news
 
Covered GREK into this pull to 10.80s. I think the trade will eventually work but they might delay this thing for a while and its tough to stay short markets that are so beaten down, the bounces are violent. Ended up losing 7% on the trade, that's ok for the odds I was getting. If a similar situation shows up again, I will try again. Reward is potentially 50%+
 
Also, there is a bet on betfair.com on Grexit. I bet a little bit this morning getting something like 7-1 (for 2015), now its like 6-1. I might bet more soon. This might be better than GREK short although there is not that much liquidity

Ideally, I will profit on both the Grexit and in the rebound being long Greek stocks/real estate
 
Here is a trade idea from Icahn, short sell high yield ETFs. He is probably using CDS but I don't think there is a huge difference between shorting the bonds and buying CDS. If you look at the charts of JNK HYG you can see that these things have peaked out and have been downtrending for like a whole year
 
Daal said:
Here is a investment idea, Greece real estate
http://www.homegreekhome.com/en/sea...m/price_1000-50000/order_pricepersqmeters_asc

Seems to be getting pretty cheap. Is anyone familiar with the laws with regards to foreign investors?I also saw a promotion today of flights from London to a Greek city for like $30. I might decide to go there just to buy a condo or something
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Bear in mind that the price might go a whole lot lower if/when Greece crashes out.

That aside, I think there is a huge opportunity here - if you are buying something as a vacation/tourist rental, AND you can market it directly to North European or North American tourists, even if on a small scale, AND you have somebody trusted who can manage it for you on the Greek end. I spend a lot of time in Catalunya and everywhere I look I see ultra-prime property, which in the USA would be worth millions, sitting abandoned or barely utilized. In these Med countries there just isn't any shortage of beach space or great views or condos in quaint oceanfront towns. Rental yields are generally quite low and competing on price for budget tourists on Booking.com isn't a route to good returns.

However, if you can work out the local connections, I think it'd be a great business idea to pick up a bunch of properties on the cheap, upgrade them to luxury standard and market them as "exclusive" high-end rentals to wealthy residents of NY, SF, DC, or London etc.
 
Specterx said:
Bear in mind that the price might go a whole lot lower if/when Greece crashes out.

That aside, I think there is a huge opportunity here - if you are buying something as a vacation/tourist rental, AND you can market it directly to North European or North American tourists, even if on a small scale, AND you have somebody trusted who can manage it for you on the Greek end. I spend a lot of time in Catalunya and everywhere I look I see ultra-prime property, which in the USA would be worth millions, sitting abandoned or barely utilized. In these Med countries there just isn't any shortage of beach space or great views or condos in quaint oceanfront towns. Rental yields are generally quite low and competing on price for budget tourists on Booking.com isn't a route to good returns.

However, if you can work out the local connections, I think it'd be a great business idea to pick up a bunch of properties on the cheap, upgrade them to luxury standard and market them as "exclusive" high-end rentals to wealthy residents of NY, SF, DC, or London etc.
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I thought about buying a condo and renting it out but the more I think about it the more I think its just an inferior way to express a view. If property prices have a good return (say 100% after 10 years), you can bet stock prices will do better than that, they would probably be up 200-300% or more (I'm basing this on the experience of other countries after they bailed out of strict currency regimes or defaulted or both). For housing to double, incomes would have to rise, the economy would have to be doing well, etc. In that case, stocks are probably a better bet.

Also, I dont have the local connections and don't know much about the Athens market. I might end up making a bad buy. Also, they have some really high transaction costs (plus I would have to pay currency conversion fees). On the other hand, I believe there are about 5 or so REITs that trade on their exchange. If if I decide to get some exposure there, I can probably pick up those REITs at good yields and automatically have the managers working for me. The REITs are exempt from some of the transactions costs

Unfortunately, these REITs don't have ADRs(that I know of) and are not in GREK (only 2% of it is Real Estate). So the only way to buy it is to open a bank/brokerage in Greece or Cyprus
 
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