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Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
eurusd@1.0882 eurcny@6.839
What a dive.... chinese tourists must be storming luxury store shelves in Paris - I'm actually looking forward to my next visit there, we will pack light and buy a lot of stuff on site
Anybody having spare euros investing in real estate in the eurozone ? I suspect southern europe is risky as the house prices might dive even further after a country leaves the eurozone end ends up with a devalued currency, but Germany, Nederlands and Austria look like good bets at the moment.
Are there good north european reits available for long term hold if they are more convenient ?
What a dive.... chinese tourists must be storming luxury store shelves in Paris - I'm actually looking forward to my next visit there, we will pack light and buy a lot of stuff on site
Anybody having spare euros investing in real estate in the eurozone ? I suspect southern europe is risky as the house prices might dive even further after a country leaves the eurozone end ends up with a devalued currency, but Germany, Nederlands and Austria look like good bets at the moment.
Are there good north european reits available for long term hold if they are more convenient ?
"
Among the changes Normand studied were the end of fixed or managed exchange rates following balances of payments crises in Mexico in 1994, Thailand and Indonesia in 1997, Russia in 1998 and Brazil in 1999. He also threw in Argentina’s 2002 removal of its currency board.
On average, crisis economies saw their currencies slide 55 percent against the dollar in the first year after the rupture and 53 percent two years later. The biggest fall in the first year was Indonesia’s 84 percent devaluation and Russia won the prize over two years with a 78 percent plummet."
Getting ready to buy GREK in the plunge
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...lunge-previewed-in-history-of-currency-crises
Among the changes Normand studied were the end of fixed or managed exchange rates following balances of payments crises in Mexico in 1994, Thailand and Indonesia in 1997, Russia in 1998 and Brazil in 1999. He also threw in Argentina’s 2002 removal of its currency board.
On average, crisis economies saw their currencies slide 55 percent against the dollar in the first year after the rupture and 53 percent two years later. The biggest fall in the first year was Indonesia’s 84 percent devaluation and Russia won the prize over two years with a 78 percent plummet."
Getting ready to buy GREK in the plunge
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...lunge-previewed-in-history-of-currency-crises
It really feels like the Greek banks will only re-open when they get a new currency. I mean, its possible that they extend the bailout but I believe that would be a mistake. Any person with money in these banks must have gotten scared shitless and faced all the problems of no access to cash. If they get a chance to get their money again they are likely to withdraw most of it or wire out of the country. So reopening the banks in a post-bailout situation would lead to a large bank run, unless they put in draconian capital controls. I guess they could do that but that would be nuts economically
The right thing to do is to get out of the EUR and reflate. Are they going to do the right thing? I think so but I'm not willing to bet money on it. Maybe a short on GREK on friday, its a risky trade though. There seem to be an infinite willingnes to keep the EUR fail thing going
The right thing to do is to get out of the EUR and reflate. Are they going to do the right thing? I think so but I'm not willing to bet money on it. Maybe a short on GREK on friday, its a risky trade though. There seem to be an infinite willingnes to keep the EUR fail thing going
Now that I think about it, this short GREK trade might be a decent one. If there is a bailout, its likely to squeeze something 10-20%, maybe more? But if Greece gets out of the EUR, its likely to tank 50-60% (in line with the study mentioned earlier). Potentially more as people create a selling climax after being hit with such a huge overnight loss
Ideally I would want to only short Greece's euros but since you can't do that, shorting the stock market becomes a 2nd option. I might get in this. No big or even medium size, I haven't macro traded in a while and I'm a little rusty but I think this one could work
Ideally I would want to only short Greece's euros but since you can't do that, shorting the stock market becomes a 2nd option. I might get in this. No big or even medium size, I haven't macro traded in a while and I'm a little rusty but I think this one could work