http://www.marketfolly.com/2013/06/notes-from-virginia-investment.html
Paul Tudor Jones (Tudor Investment Corp)
He emphasized his focus on technical analysis as that's the method he learned for trading commodities originally. He said, "I have one strong rule and that is when it comes to a stock if it's above the 200 day moving average, I'm gonna be long it, and if it's below it, I'm either not gonna own it or I'm gonna be short it, period end of story and I just let that govern every single thing that I do."
On crashes/financial crises:
"The crash of 1987 was a 100% derivatives inspired event. So someone from my background, that came from trading futures, it was very easy for me to see what was about to transpire, because I understood that at that point in time, the tail was going to wag the dog. If you look at the biggest financial crises of the past three decades, generally speaking they've been derivatives inspired. Because that's the easiest way to bring knowingly and unknowingly a huge amount of leverage into any kind of particular instrument and it's the leverage that brings the volatility."
On Japan: Jones says to watch late next year for verification if Japan has been able to reduce their debt-to-GDP. He said, "If it doesn't work, and all of a sudden they have a debt crisis, I would think you could just take 35% off all equity markets, including this one, by the time that one unwinds."
He also thinks Europe is pretty interesting with all the central bank action over there.
On when he might retire: He originally planned to potentially retire when his last child graduated from college, but he really enjoys the business and sees it as the biggest game in the world. He wants to hang around to see how the Japan situation plays out. He said, "I think the next few years are gonna be, I think some of the most exciting times for macro in the last couple of decades."
On long/short strategies: "When I think of long/short business, to me there's 5 ways to make money: 2 of those are you either play mean reversion, which is what a lot of long/short strategies do, or you can play momentum/trend, and that's typically what I do. We've seen cheap companies get cheaper many, many times. If something's going down, I want to be short it, and if something's going up, I want to be long it. The sweet spot is when you find something with a compelling valuation that is also just beginning to move up. That's every investor's dream."
Tudor Jones also noted that it's hard for a macro trader to not be perpetually long the US dollar against the South African Rand.
On short selling: "I spent 20 years doing it, it's not the right way to make a living trading. It's simply not. And I've done really well on the short side. There's nothing more exciting than a bear market. But it's not a wonderful way for long-term health and happiness."
http://www.marketfolly.com/2013/06/notes-from-virginia-investment.html#ixzz2VKATQGFp
