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Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Quote from horton:
I think you are comparing this business cycle to prior cycles whereas I am comparing this quarter's metrics to last quarter's metrics with respect to the current cycle. I agree that this cycle "sucks" relative to every cycle since 1982 because we are not enjoying the employment benefits of excess credit issuance. That may come but I doubt it will compare to those cycles. And I worry very much about the next cycle as we have reached the Keynesian end game with respect to rates versus inflation.
All fairly said. In fact you DID before my last post express concern for the future also.
However, I was not comparing current cycle with previous so much as I was profiling current conditions to include my personal take on a bleak future for reasons I cited in that last post. (I didn't even mention the epidemic of "under-employed" who take work well below their qualifications that belies the virtue of the "drift downward" in the unemployment rate.) Not dissimilar to my character assassination of the institutional and foreign buyers of real estate helping to clear the real estate inventory, the "quality" of the unemployment rate has more holes in it than just the reduction of labor participation rate that has tragically occurred.
I can live with the reference to Keynes associated with the resultant crap circumstances we are in, but to be fair, I defer to the intelligentsia who I have occasionally heard say Keynes would not have conducted the repair to our wreck the way it has been handled in the last 4 years with excessive, reckless and feckless spending , not to mention other wrecking ball policies.
Quote from deucy28:
Keynes would not have conducted the repair to our wreck the way it has been handled in the last 4 years
Understood. I think Neo-Keynesian would have been the better choice of words, whereby the term Neo is a catch all for every form of economic and political propaganda uttered over the last 30 years in defense of the US imperial mandate. So you have the Neo-Keynesians, the Neo-Conservatives, the Neo-Liberals, etc...
Never got around to buying equity vol liked I say I wanted to, but I'm considering increasing my shorts (EWI EWP perhaps even SPY) when this momentum game ends its going to be ugly
Problem is, everytime stocks are down 2-5% it looks like the game is up but they turn around and go to highs...
Problem is, everytime stocks are down 2-5% it looks like the game is up but they turn around and go to highs...
I'm curious what people think of Gold here. I cut back my position in gold since it didn't pop that much after QE3 but I still have quite a bit (its part of my all-whether long-term portfolio). I'm considering buying more but it could be too soon as this momentum market tends to take trends for a long-time before they reverse
Quote from Daal:
I'm curious what people think of Gold here.
Seems like you have to wait for some sort of positive price action before entering (giving you some low to put a stop around). The way the precious metals are trading, they could be much closer to $0 in a couple of days, but who really knows?
Quote from sprstpd:
Seems like you have to wait for some sort of positive price action before entering (giving you some low to put a stop around). The way the precious metals are trading, they could be much closer to $0 in a couple of days, but who really knows?
There is definitely a potential here to play a technical bounce here given that the pessimism is so strong and the sell-off so steep
Quote from Daal:
I'm curious what people think of Gold here. I cut back my position in gold since it didn't pop that much after QE3 but I still have quite a bit (its part of my all-whether long-term portfolio). I'm considering buying more but it could be too soon as this momentum market tends to take trends for a long-time before they reverse
I have substantial physical holdings as part of my overall wealth management/passive portfolio strategy. I'm certainly not considering cutting my holdings here and won't do so until I judge that the fundamentals have undergone a secular shift (they haven't IMO - any deflation scare will be doubtless met with more cheap money). I will likely be buying more in the next month or two but that was already planned.
In terms of trading or macro trading/investing, obviously the gold bull is dead and buried for now. Even if it does eventually resume, turning this ship is going to be a long process lasting many months, so for the time being I'm taking gold off my radar.
I think gold is very close to a short-term low (tomorrow morning is most likely time for it IMO), and will see >$1400 in the next few sessions. I'm playing it with front month calls just in case the crash continues further.