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Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Anybody with their nose completely up Berkshire's ass ought to pull it out and take a look at MKL which you can buy for book value after a cliff-dive on the ALTE acquisition announcement.
MKL has blown away Berkshire's performance over the last 3 decades and, as far as I know, CIO Tom Gayner (a Grant fave!) isn't going anywhere.
You get great performance without a foot-in-the-grave investment chief who doesn't feel the need to ever go on CNBC, or call the Treasury Sec. for a bailout, or pimp himself out for politicians. I've pleasantly owned this pup for periods over the past many years in a tax-free retirement account and always find myself banging my head into the wall after each time I sell. It's got to be about 7 years since the last time I was long, and amazingly I'd completely forgotten about it until I read an article about the ALTE buy over the weekend. Shame on me. Will be buying today.
My Xmas gift to the board (although it seems readers are more concerned with some silly punt on where some currency is headed for the next month).
MKL has blown away Berkshire's performance over the last 3 decades and, as far as I know, CIO Tom Gayner (a Grant fave!) isn't going anywhere.
You get great performance without a foot-in-the-grave investment chief who doesn't feel the need to ever go on CNBC, or call the Treasury Sec. for a bailout, or pimp himself out for politicians. I've pleasantly owned this pup for periods over the past many years in a tax-free retirement account and always find myself banging my head into the wall after each time I sell. It's got to be about 7 years since the last time I was long, and amazingly I'd completely forgotten about it until I read an article about the ALTE buy over the weekend. Shame on me. Will be buying today.
My Xmas gift to the board (although it seems readers are more concerned with some silly punt on where some currency is headed for the next month).
"Lawrence McDonald
Today's Fed Minutes are reminiscent of the 1994 Preemptive move by the central bank, you never know how quickly they may change course"
I don't necessarily buy that this will happen but the market might. I shorted some SPY and I'm ready to buy Fed futures if people's imagination start to run wild enough and they start to see monsters under the bed
Today's Fed Minutes are reminiscent of the 1994 Preemptive move by the central bank, you never know how quickly they may change course"
I don't necessarily buy that this will happen but the market might. I shorted some SPY and I'm ready to buy Fed futures if people's imagination start to run wild enough and they start to see monsters under the bed
Quote from Daal:
"Lawrence McDonald
Today's Fed Minutes are reminiscent of the 1994 Preemptive move by the central bank, you never know how quickly they may change course"
I don't necessarily buy that this will happen but the market might. I shorted some SPY and I'm ready to buy Fed futures if people's imagination start to run wild enough and they start to see monsters under the bed
+1 for "monsters under the bed".
Keep in mind that:
* equities had two very strong days, so anything could be used as an excuse to sell them
* at the last Fed meeting they increased asset purchases, ie, actions speak louder than empty and vague promises to reduce purchases in future
* although it is a committee, Bernanke's opinion matters most. And I doubt he's in a rush to pull back on asset purchases.
If they did pull back on asset purchases, and the stockmarket fell by 20%, and unemployment increased notably, then they could/would increase asset purchases.
Or the short version of what I wrote above - Bernanke knows one thing - which is how to press CTRL+P.
Further to the above post, it was at the last Fed meeting
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20121212a.htm
that the FOMC first gave a precise target for how long interest rates will be kept low:
"and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committeeâs 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. "
Not only that, they gently increased the rate of "OK inflation" from 2.00% to "no more than a half percentage point above the Committeeâs 2 percent longer-run goal", or 2.50%.
****
Minutes of December 2012 meeting:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20121212.htm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-03/fomc-minutes-released-dissension-qe4eva-growing
Useful keywords to search in minutes are
"several"
"While almost"
"almost"
"few"
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20121212a.htm
that the FOMC first gave a precise target for how long interest rates will be kept low:
"and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committeeâs 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. "
Not only that, they gently increased the rate of "OK inflation" from 2.00% to "no more than a half percentage point above the Committeeâs 2 percent longer-run goal", or 2.50%.
****
Minutes of December 2012 meeting:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20121212.htm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-03/fomc-minutes-released-dissension-qe4eva-growing
Useful keywords to search in minutes are
"several"
"While almost"
"almost"
"few"
Quote from m22au:
Further to the above post, it was at the last Fed meeting
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20121212a.htm
that the FOMC first gave a precise target for how long interest rates will be kept low:
"and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committeeâs 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. "
Not only that, they gently increased the rate of "OK inflation" from 2.00% to "no more than a half percentage point above the Committeeâs 2 percent longer-run goal", or 2.50%.
****
Minutes of December 2012 meeting:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20121212.htm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-03/fomc-minutes-released-dissension-qe4eva-growing
Useful keywords to search in minutes are
"several"
"While almost"
"almost"
"few"
There seems to be some confusion in the media about the "Several" part. I believe the FOMC minutes refer to the entire FOMC lineup (voting or not) and Several means usually 4-5 people. This is essentially a few hawks like Fisher, Lacker, Bullard and some others voicing their concerns about the new QE policy, pretty much like Kocherlakota and Hoenig would say keep saying 'rate hikes imminent' after the new policy of promising low rates was started
Quote from Daal:
There seems to be some confusion in the media about the "Several" part. I believe the FOMC minutes refer to the entire FOMC lineup (voting or not) and Several means usually 4-5 people. This is essentially a few hawks like Fisher, Lacker, Bullard and some others voicing their concerns about the new QE policy, pretty much like Kocherlakota and Hoenig would say keep saying 'rate hikes imminent' after the new policy of promising low rates was started
At this stage, the currencies (including and especially gold) are taking the minutes quite seriously. But yet the ES March 2013 futures are little changed from 4pm yesterday at 1454.00.
The market's conclusion therefore seems to be that the stockmarket can hold up with the removal of stimulus. I'm sceptical that it can remain at this level without ongoing support from the Fed. But I could be wrong. We'll find out in the months and years to come.
This is straight off the FOMC minutes
"Several thought it important to begin a program of asset sales in the near future to ensure that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet shrinks more quickly and in a more predictable manner than could be achieved solely by redeeming maturing securities and not reinvesting prepayments; they judged that a program of asset sales spread over a number of years would underscore the Committee's determination to exit from the period of exceptionally accommodative monetary policy in a manner and at a pace that would keep inflation contained without having large effects on asset prices or market interest rates"
The date?
Early 2010, lol
I don't think yesterday minutes were a big deal at all. Just some hawks whining about the new policy of QE without end dates
"Several thought it important to begin a program of asset sales in the near future to ensure that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet shrinks more quickly and in a more predictable manner than could be achieved solely by redeeming maturing securities and not reinvesting prepayments; they judged that a program of asset sales spread over a number of years would underscore the Committee's determination to exit from the period of exceptionally accommodative monetary policy in a manner and at a pace that would keep inflation contained without having large effects on asset prices or market interest rates"
The date?
Early 2010, lol
I don't think yesterday minutes were a big deal at all. Just some hawks whining about the new policy of QE without end dates