Global Macro Trading Journal

There is also the chance that the OMT program and the austerity negotiations plus bailout negotiations take a long-time, or fail completely or are postponed. All of that could drive equities to a panic, to which point the authorities get their act together. I'm trying to bank on that

If I get bought in on those ETFs, I might switch to VGK short
 
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/10/10/1202841/omt-is-so-2013/
"This reflects the dilemma [Spain] faces around the political incentives for action. While yields have been held back on the expectation of ECB intervention; their fall has made the need for action less politically pressing – reducing the likelihood of ECB intervention happening in the near-term. This rather circular position could leave Spain in limbo for a significant period, unless the market is prepared to test the region’s commitment; potentially a risky proposition given the firepower available. The political incentives are such that Spain might be kicked into the long-grass until the end of the year (although the precise timing of a request is inherently difficult to predict and we don’t discount the possibility of agreement at the Summit in mid-October)."
 
I shorted some USDHKD at 7.7505 here. QE3 plus 2015 0% rates pledge combined with the pair being close to the band(Thus forcing the HKMA to print money to keep it inside) could lead them to change the peg. I don't even think that is all likely but its worth a shot. My position is not as big as it was back in 2011 but its big enough that if they reval by 30% I will have a very nice return.

I might add more but I'm not sure. I wrote a while back how studies indicated the main factors that lead a country to break a peg, inflation was a key factor, HK inflation has tanked a lot from 2011 levels(6%ish against 3.7% right now) and their economy is slowing considerably as well(China too), so its not a very likely outcome but its worth a punt here
 
I covered NXY on pre at $24 or close to it. I missed the action earlier or I would have covered at $22 ish.
I'm hoping it rallies all the way back up so I can short again at a good r/r
 
Quote from Daal:

There is also the chance that the OMT program and the austerity negotiations plus bailout negotiations take a long-time, or fail completely or are postponed. All of that could drive equities to a panic, to which point the authorities get their act together. I'm trying to bank on that

If I get bought in on those ETFs, I might switch to VGK short
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or another possibility could be to play EWQ as a European index that is correlated with EWI and EWP. France have their own problems (admittedly not as bad as Spain and Italy) with Hollande implementing policies that aren't good for corporate profits and economic growth.

My main macro 'play', as discussed previously in my journal and this thread http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3066125

is to be long gold versus short airlines.

In the last few months I have changed this slightly to be short transport stocks as a whole (look at the underperformance of $DJT (ETF is IYT), which means that I still have short exposure to oil-sensitive stocks, but more diversified (less focus on just airlines).

I think you could be right that there needs to be a (European) risk-off before the OMT bailout happens. Also as you know when you short European stocks you introduce exposure to the movements of the EUR currency.

Having said that my largest short is NBG, but that is a specific situation and not strictly a macro 'play'.
 
If you base the risk of USDHDK at 7.7560(recent highs) and the HKMA revalues by 25% if they do revalue, the trade offers odds of 320-1
implied prob of 0.31%, I believe the prob is higher than that considering the factors I mentioned before
 
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