Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from zkf:

I have the same feeling,

maybe it's free-style, haha

This year I have increased by number of different strategies that I trade by a lot. There is not a lot to say about macro trades for me, my main trade will be the risk off trade but markets keep rising, I don't feel like fighting it for the most part
I got some bearish bets but nothing major until markets get off cocaine, that only one that I'm kinda increasing this week is short EUR/NOK EUR/SEK

These stock trades can add some pl and alpha if done right. FB potential re-buy after hitting stop(scratch trade)
 
Quote from Specterx:

I picked up a bit of FB today for a long-term investment.

I'm pretty agnostic about the short to medium-term direction (out to a few years perhaps), but it's a possible a bottom could be close. The sight of bagholder retail investors buying a speculative growth stock at $40 and then rushing to sell at $20 never ceases to amaze - as though the company's business prospects have actually changed in the last four months.

The bottom line for me is this: I joined FB when it was still restricted to Harvard, Yale, and Stanford and I've been on it for over eight years. Not a heavy user by any means, but judging by my newsfeed all the tales of people dropping off, etc. are way overblown. Everyone in my age range (26-28) and younger will most likely be social-network users for their entire lives. At this point Facebook would have to really screw up to get somebody like me to switch to an alternative, which is why efforts like Google+ have fallen flat despite FB's PR troubles over the years.

In other words they have a de facto monopoly, and it's really only a matter of time until somebody figures out a way to really monetize all the free content and data being generated by FB's users. Zuck's controlling shareholding is quite likely to be a positive in this context, as it frees him to ignore Wall Street's whines and focus on evolving the company.

The Facebook experience is certainly one for the investing textbooks as those long the stock (incl. me at one point) violate nearly every rule of success - recency effect, anchoring, you name it.

Just because the thing came public at $38, folks assume that price has some sort of validity, so seeing it at $20, they reason how I can go wrong?

If google could print a price chart or investors could envision one of the company in the years before it came public, it would look like the Nikkei of the 80s times 1000! Would they be so quick to buy at $20 then?

Facebook when it came public was already a very mature company (whose shares had gone up thousands of times in value over the preceding few years) - it dominates the world and has 1B users!!! Buying Facebook today isn't like buying Microsoft in 1986, it's like buying Microsoft in 2000. Yes, it's an important company and will remain so. Yes, it's a dominant company and will remain so. But like MS in 2000, it's just not going to provide decent returns to owners of its common stock over the long haul.

Buy it at $20 for a trade? Absolutely. Buy it as an investment to sock away for the kids? Your children have a parent who ought to find someone else to manage the family dough.
 
I want to reenter on FB. Daily chart looks really good for the last month or so. Problem is this stock pulls back a lot and is really choppy intraday, its becomes a dillema buy now or wait for better entry price?Guess I will enter part now and part later but I might be forced to buy above $22 if it runs

Thesis is this is hated stock starting an uptrend +short interest(specially after Baron's cover) that is solvent and liquid and operationally is doing just fine. Not an investment, I will dump as fast as I bought it
Stop at recent lows + wiggle room against HFT manipulation
 
Quote from Daal:
I bet Martin is shorting EUR/NOK or SEK
Sorry, I have been very busy, so haven't seen this thread of late...

I do have some bets that are sorta like this, but I refuse to have anything to do with EUR here. It's too complicated of an instrument for me.
 
Tilson presentation: "Why Netflix is a better business than Amazon"

Attention-whore much? Clearly angling to get re-invited onto fast money. What an ass.
 
Hussman quoting ZH again. :p

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc121001.htm

He admits to his indicators essentially having him out of the bull run since April 2010. At what point ought the guy simply shut down? No doubt we'll get a zinger of a bear run at some point, and that should give him enough fuel to keep his thing going for another 3 years. Some business.
 
I think EUR/USD is better than express the same view with SEK, NOK

Riksbank will lower its rate like AUD other commodity currency.

But like Martin said, EUR is very complicated, at right now. I have difficulty find a dominate theme after trio QE(Fed, ECB, BOJ) .
 
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