Global Macro Trading Journal

Nailed it: Was short Treasurys, long euros, long ES heading in.:p

Actually was out in the yard picking veggies, but woulda, coulda shoulda!
 
Quote from atticus:
So Marti, what's the DV01 of 40B in MBS?
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As far as I can see, using Fannie 3s, for example, it's smth like $22mio/bp (I could be wrong, though)... A wee chunk of change, that.

Actually, using the current 30y Fannie 3.5s, $40bn is only arnd $3mio/bp... Still chunky.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

As far as I can see, using Fannie 3s, for example, it's smth like $22mio/bp (I could be wrong, though)... A wee chunk of change, that.

Actually, using the current 30y Fannie 3.5s, $40bn is only arnd $3mio/bp... Still chunky.
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So the average position held by a Jr trader at GS. ;)
 
Fed was always worried about 1937 expectations, the expectations they the fed would start to tighten as soon as the recovery started, they used forward guidance to deal with that, even went as far as give exact dates where they would keep rates low. But now they did even more, they explicitly committed to not do that even though its kinda redundant given that they publish their forecasts along with funds rate forecasts

This is a technical difference that is not a big deal for the fed but it could be for the markets. In other words the Bernanke put expiration(in the markets perception) has been extended so there is some repricing going on

But its important to keep in mind that this has been the most widely antecipated QE program of all, it was the only QE program that had stock prices at highs and iexpectations that were well off their lows and need no 'rescuing', after this repricing goes on its likely there won't be much more to fuel stock prices

This is the time to trail stock long positions and get ready to sell them. I sold a good part of my JCP stake yesterday and might sell BRKB as well
 
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