Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Yeah, lots and lots of speculation out there regarding CHF... Still clear as mud.
Big miss on NFPs while UR drops and previous month's NFPs revised lower. Manufacturing still weak while services is barely positive. I am long, and looks like a run to 1500 isn't out of the question but QoQ ROC in US GDP, is flatlining. Mkts can of course stay irrational for a long time and judging by sentiment there are a lot of bears still short, but this stuff makes you wonder...
Then there's the fiscal cliff, I'm looking at a 2013 selloff in equity mkts and given my timing I'll prolly still be half a year early at least, but I just don't buy the 2013 better then 2012 growth forecasts from IMF et al. Just where is the organic growth gonna come from?
FWIW, a friend from China says real GDP there is more like 5% instead of the 7ish% that's being reported. Plug that into your models and see what happens...
Marting and GOC, since you guys are in the UK, what is the actual situation in the streets like? Are the real #'s in line with data that's being released or it is better/worse?
Then there's the fiscal cliff, I'm looking at a 2013 selloff in equity mkts and given my timing I'll prolly still be half a year early at least, but I just don't buy the 2013 better then 2012 growth forecasts from IMF et al. Just where is the organic growth gonna come from?
FWIW, a friend from China says real GDP there is more like 5% instead of the 7ish% that's being reported. Plug that into your models and see what happens...
Marting and GOC, since you guys are in the UK, what is the actual situation in the streets like? Are the real #'s in line with data that's being released or it is better/worse?
No ex ante quantitative limits are set on the size of Outright Monetary Transactions.â
Read carefully â the ECB did not promise âunlimitedâ financing. Rather, it refused to specify an amount in advance (ex-ante), because it doesnât want the markets to look at some inadequately small and fixed number and begin to speculate against the ECB as soon as that particular number is approached. By refusing to set a specific amount in advance, Draghi said in his press conference that he wanted the policy to be perceived as fully effective. But perception substitutes for reality only for so long. If Merkel, Monti and Rajoy were stranded on a mountaintop and Merkel was the only one with a bag of muesli, she might offer some to the other two without specifying an amount in advance, but thereâs no doubt sheâd be slapping it out of their hands if things got out of control.
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120910.htm
Read carefully â the ECB did not promise âunlimitedâ financing. Rather, it refused to specify an amount in advance (ex-ante), because it doesnât want the markets to look at some inadequately small and fixed number and begin to speculate against the ECB as soon as that particular number is approached. By refusing to set a specific amount in advance, Draghi said in his press conference that he wanted the policy to be perceived as fully effective. But perception substitutes for reality only for so long. If Merkel, Monti and Rajoy were stranded on a mountaintop and Merkel was the only one with a bag of muesli, she might offer some to the other two without specifying an amount in advance, but thereâs no doubt sheâd be slapping it out of their hands if things got out of control.
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120910.htm
I am of the opinion that it's better, but who really knows...
That's a terrible analogy. The whole point of the ECB intervening (rather than another political entity, e.g. ESM) is that it does have an infinite supply of muesli and there's nobody allowed to slap anything.
Anything is possible and I wasn't commenting on his forecast of what actually happens in the market. I am only talking about his choice of analogy, which, IMHO, is totally misleading.