Global Macro Trading Journal

[zkf]

Quote from ralph00:

Central planning has erased vol from the markets except on the days when these bureaucrats speak.

http://www.ifre.com/a-new-regime?/21037545.article

No wonder the big guys (see Bacon) are frustrated.

so true, forex trading volume is down a lot.

 

[Daal]

JCP has the type of bottoming that makes a high % chance that a long makes sense. I'm looking for something like this on FB

Big volume bar on a decline(In JCP case the decline happened on the pre-market, stock reached $19.5 pre) then steady march up while ignoring all the trash talking by the media and news

 

[Ghost of Cutten]

Quote from Butterball:

Bass' fund is a beautiful example for one of these 'I have this great asymmetric payoff trade, this is a no-brainer' ideas gone haywire. There's no guarantee the trade will not incur a severe loss of capital even if premium is seemingly 'cheap' and something is 'obviously a bubble'.

The guarantee is how much capital you put into it. If I put in 1% to a long put position, 1% is the most I can lose on it - it would be impossible to incur a severe loss of capital.

 

[ralph00]

JOY Global earnings a disaster (though it has to have been expected, wouldn't be surprised to see a ton of shorts cover and the stock close green today). Getting really itchy to short aussies but must force myself to wait for something akin to a rate cut out of China.

http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/512471

 

[Martinghoul]

Quote from zkf:
Thank you Martinghoul, I will take a look.

I thought Brvan Howard is more like Capula Investment , do you know how these guy trades? In a bloomberg news, it says their main fund is on the relative value, sort of spread trading?

Thanks

Capula is a bit different. Their emphasis is on bond relative value (as well as derivatives), rather than discretionary macro. Both do a bit of everything, but they have different weights attached to different strategies.

And yes, relative value involves doing spreads, flies, bonds vs futures (basis), etc.

 

[ralph00]

YELP up 17% on lockup expiration day as shorts get roasted. This is exactly what I thought would happen with FB. Sigh.

 

[Butterball]

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

The guarantee is how much capital you put into it. If I put in 1% to a long put position, 1% is the most I can lose on it - it would be impossible to incur a severe loss of capital.

Sure, but you put in 1% premium every month/quarter/year because 'sooner or later' the idea will work -- hey it's a bubble after all so it's guaranteed to pop. This can turn into a costly waiting game no matter how cheap the premium may seem.

As always, timing matters and the bubble vision interviews of Bass don't care to mention that.

 

[Martinghoul]

Quote from Butterball:
Sure, but you put in 1% premium every month/quarter/year because 'sooner or later' the idea will work -- hey it's a bubble after all so it's guaranteed to pop. This can turn into a costly waiting game no matter how cheap the premium may seem.

As always, timing matters and the bubble vision interviews of Bass don't care to mention that.

If my recollection is correct, this is precisely the phenomenon that gave us Taleb the Philosopher. Prior to this, he used to be Taleb the Options Trader.

 

[luisHK]

Quote from Martinghoul:

If my recollection is correct, this is precisely the phenomenon that gave us Taleb the Philosopher. Prior to this, he used to be Taleb the Options Trader.

Which reminds me to look up his precise fund performances, if available

 

[Daal]

WHX and BPT are signs how out of hand the reach for yield has gotten
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB200...77609291984902960.html?ru=yahoo?mod=yahoo_itp