In which case it all depends how big that bet is compared to the main fund. If he has 5% of assets in this side-fund, and is down 60% on it, then there is no story at all - it's a 3% loss over 6 months. If he has 30% of assets then yeah, that's a biggie. But posting or commenting on the 'story' without assessing how much of total assets he lost is just misleading.
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Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
In which case it all depends how big that bet is compared to the main fund. If he has 5% of assets in this side-fund, and is down 60% on it, then there is no story at all - it's a 3% loss over 6 months. If he has 30% of assets then yeah, that's a biggie. But posting or commenting on the 'story' without assessing how much of total assets he lost is just misleading.
Quote from Specterx:
Five billion dollars actually...
As an aside, is there really a significant population of traders with meaningful (say 5+ years) track records of strong returns struggling in the dark because nobody will give them money?
In Hedge Fund Market Wizards, there is a guy running 50 million who was making >20% per annum with moderate drawdowns, during the exact same period as Hussman was running his fund. Hussman has 5 billion, this guy has 1% of that, despite being about 100 times better on performance. The only conclusion is that many investors are idiots. Then again, if many investors weren't idiots, markets wouldn't be beatable.
Another conclusion is that the accredited investor rules basically fleece smaller investors and help the rich get richer. Average stiffs get stuck with the Hussmans of this world, while rich people can pick those with skills and the track record to back it up.
You're mistaken, GoC... Kyle Bass himself (in his investor letters, regulatory filings, as well as media appearances) has stated that "short Japan" is a standalone high-conviction thematic trade for him. He has created and marketed a dedicated fund (Japan Macro Opportunities Master Fund or JMOMF) that would allow investors to capitalize on this specific "opportunity". So if you're an investor in JMOMF, you're by no means necessarily going to be an investor in the main fund. It is pretty painful if you have money in JMOMF. My comment was specifically about the Japan trade, rather than Kyle Bass's skill more generally.Quote from Ghost of Cutten:
In which case it all depends how big that bet is compared to the main fund. If he has 5% of assets in this side-fund, and is down 60% on it, then there is no story at all - it's a 3% loss over 6 months. If he has 30% of assets then yeah, that's a biggie. But posting or commenting on the 'story' without assessing how much of total assets he lost is just misleading.
BTW, from what I can see, JMOMF was quite small (in early 2011 only arnd $101mio).
I's say equities and forex. They make predictions based on macroeconomic analysisQuote from zkf:
hi,
nowadays, which markets (or instruments) are the main arena of these macro funds? forex, bonds or commodities? and what kind of strategy do they employ, for a non-quantitative fund?
Thanks
Thank you Daal,
Alan Howard seems focus into forex and bonds trading, there was an article profiling how Alan trading everyday, From my understandings, Alan is a discretional and put huge emphasis on risk management, but that article lacks detail what instruments do he employ and the strategy, only saying he may hold positions for several months or just a few minutes.
Alan Howard seems focus into forex and bonds trading, there was an article profiling how Alan trading everyday, From my understandings, Alan is a discretional and put huge emphasis on risk management, but that article lacks detail what instruments do he employ and the strategy, only saying he may hold positions for several months or just a few minutes.
Gonna sell my Verizon today. It's been a nice run, but (I've said this before) it makes zero logical sense for a company barely growing earnings to be trading at a steep premium to the market multiple while GOOG and AAPL trade at or even at discounts to the market multiple.
I'm not saying GOOG and APPL (both of which I own) are headed higher, just that I can't justify owning VZ anymore.
I'm not saying GOOG and APPL (both of which I own) are headed higher, just that I can't justify owning VZ anymore.
Alan Howard is predominantly involved in rates, with front end being the main focus. The instruments are various interest rate derivatives and the strategy is discretionary macro. Obviously, Brevan has a whole lot of PMs doing all sorts of other things, but Alan takes the main risks (esp now that Rokos is gone).Quote from zkf:
Thank you Daal,
Alan Howard seems focus into forex and bonds trading, there was an article profiling how Alan trading everyday, From my understandings, Alan is a discretional and put huge emphasis on risk management, but that article lacks detail what instrument do he employ and the strategy, only saying he may hold positions for several months or just a few minutes.
wow, that's informational. Thank you Martinghoul.
The rate derivatives you mentioned is like rate spread? e.g German-Spain 10y yield spread. or curve spread? As you said his main focus is front end, what's that mean? I am quite strange to these thing, (I do read lots of your comments, but most of them esp technical ones are quite Greek to me). Do you have some book recommendations list?
Regards,
Mike
The rate derivatives you mentioned is like rate spread? e.g German-Spain 10y yield spread. or curve spread? As you said his main focus is front end, what's that mean? I am quite strange to these thing, (I do read lots of your comments, but most of them esp technical ones are quite Greek to me). Do you have some book recommendations list?
Regards,
Mike