Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

This would also argue against trying to value invest if your full-time gig is being a trader. How many people are top in two separate sports? How many poker pros are chess grandmasters also? If only the elite can thrive, and your best skill is trading, it is incredibly unlikely that you will also be good enough to seriously outperform through value investing as well. Also, as a good trader, your hurdle rate will be massively higher than most pro value investors. If you can make 20%+ with <20% drawdowns as a trader, then very few value investors are able to compete with those numbers. Even if you are somehow a Soros and Buffett rolled into one, you have a limited amount of study time per week. A pure trader, and a pure value investor, of equal ability to yourself, will be doing at least twice as much work on their specialist field each week as you are able to. There's really no realistic way to compete on the same level.

So, it's probably best to stick to your knitting, and only step outside your speciality if a truly exceptional opportunity presents itself (e.g. late 2008/early 2009). This has the nice side-benefit of making you into the equivalent of a super-patient investor who is fully in cash at the depths of every bear market.

Here's a solution, quantifiable value investing
http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/97001708?access_key=key-277kw4gpzmb8o27srpuv

Really nice paper there, one can do even better than value investors using rules and formulas for investing. Also it appears that for long-term cash its superior to use RSP(Equal weight SPX) instead of SPY
 
Market looking sucker-punched after jobs report... no QE3 anticipation bounce thus far.

Whole holiday week, post ECB move may have been a headfake. (Operation wash n' rinse, with short opps to resume following, as noted here...)

Real tell, as far as stimulus hopes go, may have been utter lack of response to Thursday's "shock and awe" (ECB, BOE, PBOC moving all at once).

And gold, good lord. Gold and silver look like shit on toast.

This market just does not believe the inflationary / reflationary case. If we get another precious metals crap-out here, I wouldn't be surprised to see gold stocks get smashed.

I'd be interested in buying gold after the market pukes up a lung... or maybe a lung and half a liver... no position in PMs, but resisting the urge to get aggressively bearish. What turns the tide at this point? And have we seen the big Paulson capitulation yet? How long before the rest of his investors decide he was just a big-ass riverboat gambler who used up all his luck in '07 / '08?

Fear of a conservative win could be in play here too. Obama isn't running against Romney, he's running against the economy. Romney and crew will be seen as austerian + tax cuts for the rich (which ain't exactly stimulative).

Just some quick random thoughts...
 
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via http://www.scribd.com/doc/99127703/BofAML-The-Longest-Picture
 
If an Apple Ipad costs 400 USD it costs 600 Euro over here.

Won't the drop in the Euro eat at the profits of many US and Chinese manufacturers?
 
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