Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from darkhorse:


My replies have focused on logic, information, and the point of view of one experienced practitioner, that is all. From the standpoint of idea contribution, food for thought, and articulation of a coherent market philosophy, I have contributed a lot to this thread.
You, on the other hand, have resorted to some version of ad hominem, hand waving, or inaccurate generalization almost every time you have been challenged. This is not opinion, this is objectively verifiable for anyone willing to bother checking back through the thread.

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I'd argue its the exact opposite, most who have debated you has felt you were unfairly characterizing their views (Of the top of my head I remember complaints from Specterx and Cutten)
 
Quote from Daal:

I'd argue its the exact opposite, most who have debated you has felt you were unfairly characterizing their views (Of the top of my head I remember complaints from Specterx and Cutten)
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Don't put words in my mouth or drag me into this.

If you don't want to engage or hear from somebody then either put them on ignore, or just don't respond. At the current rate this thread is quickly (and sadly) being submerged under bickering and personality conflicts.
 
Hell, keeping responses to 100 words or less would solve pretty much everything. darkhorse doesn't seem like a bad guy, either does that goc dude, but my mind quickly drifts off to golf, or baseball, or porn within the first sentence or two of their posts.

How about a tasty trade idea once in a while, presented succinctly?:)
 
Quote from ralph00:

Hell, keeping responses to 100 words or less would solve pretty much everything. darkhorse doesn't seem like a bad guy, either does that goc dude, but my mind quickly drifts off to golf, or baseball, or porn within the first sentence or two of their posts.

How about a tasty trade idea once in a while, presented succinctly?:)
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+1

maybe i should start to read your posts again...:)


btw - why was copper so strong in the past 2 days? does it signal anything? is e.g. FCX a good value here? especially given the combination of 4% yield and its high beta?

just a food for thoughts...dyodd
 
Natgas might be worth putting on the radar. There's been lots of talk lately about how rock-bottom prices are crimping exploration as drilling for shale gas is broadly unprofitable, and the wells exhaust extremely quickly (no drilling today on the expectation of higher prices in ten years). Exports are/would be profitable, but possibilities for that are currently very limited until LNG export capacity gets on-line.

Either way, domestic prices ought to rise. I'm keeping an eye on UNG but this is one where you definitely don't want to be early.
 
Quote from Specterx:

Natgas might be worth putting on the radar. There's been lots of talk lately about how rock-bottom prices are crimping exploration as drilling for shale gas is broadly unprofitable, and the wells exhaust extremely quickly (no drilling today on the expectation of higher prices in ten years). Exports are/would be profitable, but possibilities for that are currently very limited until LNG export capacity gets on-line.

Either way, domestic prices ought to rise. I'm keeping an eye on UNG but this is one where you definitely don't want to be early.
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agree on natgas (not on UNG though).
interesting (likely russian sponsored) article here: http://cluborlov.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/shale-gas-view-from-russia.html
 
2nd half of this thread you can see actually see the postings of trade ideas drop and arguments pick up.

Anyways re:NG, I mentioned to GOC in another thread that it would make more sense to be long NG input companies/businesses then long NG itself. With so much of it around, and the capacity still there, price increases in the physical ought to be muted. Sure if upstream producers hold back capacity in an declining inventory environment, those middleman companies could get squeezed on op margins, but that is not where we are at and likely not to be for a few years.
 
Quote from dhpar:

you both try to be clever and it does not work for anybody. this thread is just disintegrating due to egos of few posters here...
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that is picking up in all threads, i wonder if it's a tell on the market
 
Quote from ammo:

that is picking up in all threads, i wonder if it's a tell on the market
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Central planning rules the world. Tough to find a lot of alpha in this environment, so bored traders instead pull out their dicks for measurement.

For now, I'll continue to stick with cheap big caps paying me well more than the 10-year Treasury yield for my money as they buy back shares, and (generally :) ) rise in price. Throw in your favorite mREIT (ATMs as long as Fed Funds stays at 0, which looks like it will be the rest of our lives), and you can sleep pretty easy at night while earning double-digit annual returns.
 
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