Global Macro Trading Journal

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=922244

Study of fixed exchange rates. Things that increase chance of exits
-How long they have been on it(The more the more likely they will exit)
And if I'm interpreting the results correctly(Which I might not be)
-Inflation(The higher the more likely they will exit)
-Current account balance(The bigger the deficit the more likely they will exit)
-Openness(Same)

Switzerland only has against it 'Openness'(huge CA surplus and deflation) everything else just increases the chance they will stay in. The avg fixed exchange rate regime is 12 years(Median 9)

I'm sure these facts won't make it to the blogs though
 
In the other hand HK is way above the avg in the time spent on the regime(29 years!), have high inflation and rank quite high in openness
Because inflation is likely to fall and RE to crash I'm not inclined to be long right now but when things settle down I will be back on it
 
Would venture a guess that the greek elections turns out to be a non event and the real deal is what the Fed announcement will be on Weds.
 
Reading the study more carefully it seems that Openness actually decreases the change of exit. So there is even less of a chance of a Swiss exit and decreased change of a HK exit by that factor as well

In all 4 factors Switzerland does not look likely to exit
 
Quote from Debaser82:

I own a stock (GBG) and Google finance and Yahoo bizz give all different closings.

Its listed in the US and Canada.

On google finance it says for the US listing

0.630 -13.58%


On yahoo bizz it says

After Hours: 0.7490 Up 0.1190 (18.89%)

The Canadian listing says

0.800 +0.080 (11.11%) on Google finance

On yahoo bizz it says

3.71 Up 2.99(415.28%)


I hope the last one is the real one since I own quite a bit of them....:D :D :D

Probably an error of some kind no?
More...

Go to the exchange it trades on, that will give the official close.
 
ND wins, but not by any decisive margin. PASOK afraid to form a coalition without Syriza, for fear Syriza will mock with impunity from the sidelines.

More uncertainty, more negotiation, probably more elections sooner rather than later.

God Europe is a bore.
 
Quote from ralph00:

J.C. Penney on the way to single digits. The bull case on that puppy just exploded with whatshisname's firing.
More...


Is that really a surprise though? He was basically a sacrifice to the gods so that Ron Johnson wouldn't have to throw himself into the volcano no?

(Not that I am bullish on JCP)
 
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