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Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:
Re gold
I'm trying to think where the market would go on a shakeout of any recent longs. $1570-80 seems like a good spot - enough to cause a bit of pain for a day or two. That would also be a correction of about half the rally. But, the path of most frustration might be just to break out higher again, not allowing anyone to easily get long.
So...seems like a stop a bit below 1570 on a closing basis would be best - maybe 1565 or 1560. Be at least half long here, arguably a proper long position, and prepared to go to maximum size on a $40-50 dip (which might last a very short time).
Gold miners (GDX) seem a bit more extended, I could see a pullback to 43-44. So maybe we will actually get a short dip down e.g. 40-50 in the metal, $3-5 in GDX.
Any thoughts on this?
Not surprisingly I agree with your analysis and since early/mid May I've greatly added to my gold and GDX, and put on a silver position today.
I'm not so sure that the rally will necessarily take off immediately but I sure wouldn't complain.
Quote from CPTrader:
This is one of the most IMPORTANT cardinal truths in trading and one of the MOST DIFFICULT to abide by.
Meh. It's only difficult to get it. Once you get it, the flexibility part comes naturally.
"Strong opinions weakly held."
Game multiple scenarios -- different versions of the market script. Then go with the script that fits the evidence and is confirmed by price action. No script confirmation, no activity (or trading small and light until more confirmation comes). If the plot changes, change with it. The script doesn't follow a linear path -- it's a Choose Your Own Adventure book.
Longer term, good trading habits are about "right thought, right action." When your perception and internalized levels of understanding are correct, taking the correct action becomes as simple as reaching for a glass of water when thirsty.
Quote from darkhorse:
Oh Ben, we had such high hopes (not)
Rented longs all either cashed or breakeven now -- red close today would be pretty bad mojo for ze boolz
He certainly doesn't seem to be throwing the market much of a bone. The employment weakness is due to "the end of a catch-up period," there are lots of "costs and risks" associated with further easing etc. At the very least suggests the FOMC is divided and he wants to kick the can until the meeting.
Quote from Specterx:
He certainly doesn't seem to be throwing the market much of a bone. The employment weakness is due to "the end of a catch-up period," there are lots of "costs and risks" associated with further easing etc. At the very least suggests the FOMC is divided and he wants to kick the can until the meeting.
This further fits my hypothesis that Bernanke is not a complete idiot.
If QE3 is his last bullet, he will want to wring every drop out of jawboning, and postpone the actual firing of the bullet for as long as possible. This involves walking a tightrope of expectations.
Melvin Udall: You make me want to be a better man.
Carol Connelly: That's maybe the best compliment of my life.
Melvin Udall: Well, maybe I overshot a little, because I was aiming at just enough to keep you from walking out.
Quote from darkhorse:
This further fits my hypothesis that Bernanke is not a complete idiot.
If QE3 is his last bullet, he will want to wring every drop out of jawboning, and postpone the actual firing of the bullet for as long as possible. This involves walking a tightrope of expectations.
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Couldn't disagree more with this. Bernanke doesn't think QE3 is his last bullet. He doesn't think a central bank can EVER run out of bullets. If you disagree with that, its not relevant, he is the one controlling the printing press
The bar for easing a higher than the market thinks but it doesn't mean they are afraid to use due fears of not having 'bullets' left or anything like that