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Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Noise about dropping the CHF 1.20 floor ...
http://translate.google.com/transla...ch/finance/dossier/frankenboom/story/11560140
http://translate.google.com/transla...ch/finance/dossier/frankenboom/story/11560140
Dividend growers vs. the S&P 500 ... not a fair fight.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/634...-vs-the-s-p-500-30-year-backtest?source=yahoo
http://seekingalpha.com/article/634...-vs-the-s-p-500-30-year-backtest?source=yahoo
Quote from ralph00:
Dividend growers vs. the S&P 500 ... not a fair fight.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/634...-vs-the-s-p-500-30-year-backtest?source=yahoo
I don't see how this is much use. If I made a list of the top 40 EPS-growers over the past 25 years and discovered that - surprise! - they beat SPX over that same period, that doesn't tell me anything about whether they will do so in the future. Very fundamental day-1 newbie backtesting mistake.
Actually the most interesting bit is that the "dividend champs" appear to have no advantage at all from 1982-2000, i.e. during a secular bull. Once you account for taxes they may well lag the index, and this is the most hindsight-bias cherry-picked favorable subset. That's not what I would have expected.
Quote from ralph00:
Dividend growers vs. the S&P 500 ... not a fair fight.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/634...-vs-the-s-p-500-30-year-backtest?source=yahoo
Except why would you invest in either as an aggregate basket?
As far as "fights" go, that's like midget vs. one-armed man.
Nice piece on Tisch beating Buffett (L vs BRK.B)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-04/tisch-beats-buffett-with-8-return-citing-diana-ross.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-04/tisch-beats-buffett-with-8-return-citing-diana-ross.html
http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/speeches/id/ref_20120531_jpd/source/ref_20120531_jpd.en.pdf
Vice chair of SNB
"In the current global context, Switzerlandâs economic situation does not
justify any strengthening of monetary conditions and this should remain the case for the foreseeable future."
"However, the SNB does recognise that the long
period of low interest rates we are experiencing constitutes a danger to the stability of the financial system. The domestic credit and real estate markets are vibrant and there are concerns about the possible build-up of imbalances, which could eventually lead to price corrections and substantial losses in the Swiss banking sector.
There is no doubt, however, that, in the current context of global economic indications of downside risks to the Swiss economy, current interest rate levels and the minimum exchange rate are vital. Any
concerns about the housing market must, therefore, be addressed by alternative means. The SNB thus advocates the introduction of a âcountercyclical capital bufferâ, a macroprudential tool targeted at the specific situation we are experiencing"
Vice chair of SNB
"In the current global context, Switzerlandâs economic situation does not
justify any strengthening of monetary conditions and this should remain the case for the foreseeable future."
"However, the SNB does recognise that the long
period of low interest rates we are experiencing constitutes a danger to the stability of the financial system. The domestic credit and real estate markets are vibrant and there are concerns about the possible build-up of imbalances, which could eventually lead to price corrections and substantial losses in the Swiss banking sector.
There is no doubt, however, that, in the current context of global economic indications of downside risks to the Swiss economy, current interest rate levels and the minimum exchange rate are vital. Any
concerns about the housing market must, therefore, be addressed by alternative means. The SNB thus advocates the introduction of a âcountercyclical capital bufferâ, a macroprudential tool targeted at the specific situation we are experiencing"
Quote from darkhorse:
Except why would you invest in either as an aggregate basket?
As far as "fights" go, that's like midget vs. one-armed man.
Right! Some folks on this thread are obsessed with "the market" though. Talking about "the market" is a lot of fun when hanging with the crew and all discussion about the Phillies has run down, but does little to make anyone any money.
Quote from ralph00:
Right! Some folks on this thread are obsessed with "the market" though. Talking about "the market" is a lot of fun when hanging with the crew and all discussion about the Phillies has run down, but does little to make anyone any money.
If you have a futures position, then what the market does it pretty darn important.