Global Macro Trading Journal

ouch. well, that's a shocker. UB up 10 points in the past 3 days. glad i did not pick this one to short.

i closed half of the position in Schatz - it was a big mistake to take the flattener off. i will decide if i stay with the second half after the weekend. there may be better time to re-enter. currently down 3bps.

this is a game changer - let's step up QE3456789...
 
“The End Game” – Global Macro Investor, May 2012
Posted on June 1, 2012
Analysis by Raoul Pal – Global Macro Investor:

“The world has no engine of growth with most of the G20 countries approaching stall speed at the same time. The Western World is about to enter its second recession in an ongoing depression…”

“Fact: This will be the lowest cyclical peak in GDP growth in G7 history. These are the weakest ever foundations on which to enter a recession.”

“The ten largest debtor nations on earth have total debts of over 300% of World GDP.”

Pal warnings:

With very limited room for government bailouts, we can very easily join the next dots from the first bank closure to the collapse of the whole European banking system, and then to the bankruptcy of the governments themselves.
There are almost no brakes in the system to stop this, and almost no one realises the seriousness of the situation.
The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivatives…
Yes, that equates to 1200% of Global GDP and it rests on very, very weak foundations
From an EU crisis, we only have to join one dot for a UK crisis of equal magnitude.
And then do you think Japan and China would not be next?
And then do you think the US would survive unscathed?
That is the end of the fractional reserve banking system and of fiat money.
It is the big RESET.
More…:

Bonds will be stuck at 1% in the US, Germany, UK and Japan (for this phase).
The whole bond market will be dead.
Short selling on bonds – banned
Short selling stocks – banned
CDS – banned
Short futures – banned
Put options – banned
All that is left is the Dollar and Gold
Summary…:

We have around 6 months left of trading in Western markets to protect ourselves or make enough money to offset future losses.
Spend your time looking at the risks of custody, safekeeping, counterparty etc. Assume that no one and nothing is safe.
Raoul Pal, 22 years experience in global finance – founder of Global Macro Investors. Also previous affiliation with GLG Global Macro Fund – London and with Goldman Sachs’ hedge fund business – equities and equities derivatives.

Report accessed from Zero Hedge: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/big-reset-2012-and-2013-will-usher-end-scariest-presentation-ever

6 months from now it all won't matter.
celebrate xmas early.

strap in and wear a helmet.

s

:cool:
 
Even though I have quite a bit of bearish exposures I hope the ISM Mfg beats. QE3 at the next meeting(Which at this point is not a baseline case at all, read Dudley) could mess up my trades
 
FOMC doesn't change their mind quickly. I believe these QE3 expectations are currently misplaced(If they are for the next meeting). Perhaps the fed might throw some kind of bone(Twist extension) but I don't believe the current data supports QE3

Specially, because people are being dumb not realizing their own buying makes QE3 less likely
 
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