Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
I agree on the likely timing, but it doesn't really matter too much - in these situations there is always a final panic where everything gets sold down almost regardless of price, just wait for that to happen, then step in and pick up the bargains.
A EU version of 2008/early 09 should provide even bigger bargains than USA did, because of the hamstrung/dithering central bank, lack of coordinated fiscal response, and the currency issues which give a more deflationary slant to things. Early 2009 saw 1932 valuations on US corp bonds, but not in US equities. 2012 may see 1932 valuations on PIIGS equities.
I think the important thing now is to decide on which things to invest in if and when the panic reaches its critical point. In these environments, some stocks will to up 3 or 4 fold in a few weeks after the lows are in, some will be up 10 or 20 fold within 2-3 years. It would be worthwhile to start a 'shopping list' of the best trading and investment vehicles for the coming months and years ahead.
Quote from dhpar:
with the German short rates where there are what do you think about outright shorting some Schatz futures? (or maybe on a relative basis to 2yr tsy?)
risk-wise I can imagine that nominal rates go slightly negative from here as the fear of euro uncontrolled decommissioning may make people pay for a privilege of owning portion of a hard working German taxpayer. but the risks of that are certainly less than high imo.
on top of that all that crap about Eurobonds should ultimately put a pressure on German yield in any case.
would like to hear some opinion on this - especially from the Rates guys...
p.s. of course i am short already
Let us know when you feel like puking out. That will be the time to double up. At the moment it sounds like you are in 'rationalize losses' mode - usually the trend keeps going until you shift into the 'soil underpants' phase.
P.S. Euroswiss got to 100.80 last year. No reason why German rates can't do the same.
So much for 'top ticking' long bonds and EURUSD. Ralphie is the type of guy that is very loud when he's shitting on people but becomes very quiet when eating humble pie.
Ha, love it! Again, I had no idea people pay so much attention.
As for being a bond bear, voicing an opinion is far different than holding a position, and I have none. I do own a number of companies, paying me far more than the 10-year Treasury yield on my money. I'll take the higher yield and adaptive managements any day. My one non-yielder, Zillow is making the lists of best-performing stocks of 2012 (prolly ought to sell some) ... take that Whit!
Yes, I covered my EUR short too early. So what. I spent too many years being upset because I didn't have a large enough position when things were going my way or beating myself up over cutting a winner too soon. That type of negative thinking is a killer. I'm on to the next thing (which, who knows, may be reshorting the EUR at some point).
don't worry - i will. compared to you i (rarely) post some real trading and not just the worthless babble.
i have half position outright at 110.70 in September so I am down whopping 3 bps as of now. the other half was in a 2x30 flattener which today more than offset the loss on outright - the long buxl leg is now closed so i am only short outright in schatz - to make it simple my break-even is around zero yield now, i.e. about 110.80 on September...
i guess i will need some luck but as of now i believe in the trade.
p.s. what nonsense are you spewing out about euroswiss? what's the relevance?
Butterball -
I recall you posted your portfolio a few weeks back and you were significantly net long equities, did the May action trigger any significant shifts in positioning?
For my part little has changed other than I took a position in GLD and long Yen futures, and about doubled up on GDX.
I recall you posted your portfolio a few weeks back and you were significantly net long equities, did the May action trigger any significant shifts in positioning?
For my part little has changed other than I took a position in GLD and long Yen futures, and about doubled up on GDX.