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Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
If catching knifes is not profitable then there are excess returns to be earned by shorting knifes. Its contradictory to not be short JPM then
I already know the reply 'but its too uncertain, I have no confidence either way' exactly, its in this type of situations that stocks are sold bellow their fair value, its a human value to want to step way from this situation
Furthermore if there is one asset where buying declines is likely to be profitable it is in stocks as they are historically mean reverting
I already know the reply 'but its too uncertain, I have no confidence either way' exactly, its in this type of situations that stocks are sold bellow their fair value, its a human value to want to step way from this situation
Furthermore if there is one asset where buying declines is likely to be profitable it is in stocks as they are historically mean reverting
Quote from Daal:
What makes this specially attractive to the core countries is the fact that if they don't give these fiscal transfers, then they will lose everything(Greece does 100% defaults and leaves EUR). So its a choice between losing 50%+ and diminishing panic and losing 100% and triggering a banking panic of large proportions
I think you need to think a bit harder about the differences between Greece and Lehman. The former has been in serious trouble for a number of years and already defaulted once just a few months ago (causing barely a ripple). Their debt has been trading at distressed levels for over a year and continues to do so. Up until the last moment nobody really thought Lehman would be allowed to fail whereas a Greek exit now appears quite likely, and not just on the fringes of Elitetrader.
European leaders are now beginning to openly discuss the possibility. There's no way they would dare bring it up if the perceived consequences were as disastrous as you say.
I'm not trying to argue it won't have an effect - merely that the world won't end overnight, and in particular I think you're very mistaken to think the Germans et al will continue to throw good money after bad if Greece's government snubs the bailout conditions.
Quote from Daal:
If catching knifes is not profitable then there are excess returns to be earned by shorting knifes. Its contradictory to not be short JPM then
I already know the reply 'but its too uncertain, I have no confidence either way' exactly, its in this type of situations that stocks are sold bellow their fair value, its a human value to want to step way from this situation
...which goes 100% against the Grahamian ethos of finding clear cut situations and avoiding muddled ones (also Buffett, re, "seven footers," and Munger, re, "too hard bucket").
Apart from citing value guys, though, that's daffy logic. Just because one side of a proposition is unattractive, doesn't mean you want to take the other side automatically.
And the problem with the fair value assertion, of course, is the challenge of making a credible estimate as to what fair value consists of. If nobody fuckin' knows, then how do you know it's below fair value? How do you know it wasn't above fair value in the first place?
Quote from Daal:
lol, I guess Warren Buffett doesn't meat your criteria of value investor and Graham follower then
Meat? Eww.
WB saw JP Morgan as a well managed holding when he bought for his personal account, and presumably also assumed Dimon had a very tight rein on things -- a little different than buying into a derivatives debacle that is still playing out after the CEO just displayed cluelessness to his own trading book. Also, there's no rule that says the Oracle of Omaha can't be a hypocrite. He does plenty of stuff Graham would have had no truck with.
Quote from Specterx:
European leaders are now beginning to openly discuss the possibility. There's no way they would dare bring it up if the perceived consequences were as disastrous as you say.
But do they really know? Or have they just dithered and dallied to the end of the line?
Given the track record so far, it seems more logical to take the William Goldman stance: "Nobody knows nothin," i.e. downside risks are still egregiously unquantified at this point.
When it comes to macro crises, the market has a notorious habit of ignoring the obvious and the flatly stated for indeterminate periods of time, occasionally quite long periods of time, then suddenly waking up to "reality" all at once. I would be hesitant to say with firmness what is or isn't priced in.
Let's also not forget Hank Paulson thought it'd be a great idea to let Lehman fail in a disorderly manner on a Sunday evening and thought the market was 'well prepared' and the impact would be muted. 48 hours later he started wetting his pants.
There's no telling if there's a large discrepancy between what European leaders assume will be the market reaction and what may actually follow.
There's no telling if there's a large discrepancy between what European leaders assume will be the market reaction and what may actually follow.
Quote from darkhorse:
...which goes 100% against the Grahamian ethos of finding clear cut situations and avoiding muddled ones (also Buffett, re, "seven footers," and Munger, re, "too hard bucket").
Apart from citing value guys, though, that's daffy logic. Just because one side of a proposition is unattractive, doesn't mean you want to take the other side automatically.
And the problem with the fair value assertion, of course, is the challenge of making a credible estimate as to what fair value consists of. If nobody fuckin' knows, then how do you know it's below fair value? How do you know it wasn't above fair value in the first place?
Buy panic sell histeria, you don't have to know the exact fair value to know that the odds are in your favor due human flaws leading to mispricings
Quote from darkhorse:
Meat? Eww.
WB saw JP Morgan as a well managed holding when he bought for his personal account, and presumably also assumed Dimon had a very tight rein on things -- a little different than buying into a derivatives debacle that is still playing out after the CEO just displayed cluelessness to his own trading book. Also, there's no rule that says the Oracle of Omaha can't be a hypocrite. He does plenty of stuff Graham would have had no truck with. [/B]
I'd be shocked if Buffett doesn't come out saying the same thing he said about WMT. Plus he has been more accomplished than Graham ever was, tons of Graham tricks are outdated anyhow
Quote from Daal:
Buy panic sell histeria, you don't have to know the exact fair value to know that the odds are in your favor due human flaws leading to mispricings
So "panic" in this case = a one day gap and < 10% drop in stock price that isn't even a new six month low.
Re, human flaw connoisseurship, I humbly suggest a review of "anchoring" and "recency bias"