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Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Quote from Daal:
Greece has a primary surplus. Full default means they will have a fiscal surplus as well(not having to make interest payments), they won't need the bond market anymore. They can stop all the austerity
Does such a conclusion include potential repercussions for their stand by their trading partners?
Quote from Debaser82:
Does such a conclusion include potential repercussions for their stand by their trading partners?
Thats what I'm trying to figure out. Whether the threats they will kick Greece out of EZ are true or if its a bluff
It will create a lot of panic to kick them out(And they know it) yet thats what they are saying they will do, bailout agreements or you are out of EZ
Quote from Daal:
Greece has a primary surplus. Full default means they will have a fiscal surplus as well(not having to make interest payments), they won't need the bond market anymore. They can stop all the austerity
I'm in favor of full default, but this is a naive analysis. The capital of the banking system and the pension fund system will be wiped out in a default. The economy would have a quick collapse ... from there they could set about rebuilding, a la Iceland.
http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/308271
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/54fa4006-99ed-11e1-accb-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1uLsvrGEK
One could be forgiven for thinking the BuBa cues off SPX now.
With all these Euro-characters, I certainly get the impression they're craven Eurocrats first and foremost, regardless of their background or politics. In the final analysis, whatever the orthodoxy says must be done to 'save the Euro' will be implemented come hell or high water - whether this means Eurobonds, money printing, austerity forever etc. etc. until people are literally getting strung up from lampposts.
One could be forgiven for thinking the BuBa cues off SPX now.
With all these Euro-characters, I certainly get the impression they're craven Eurocrats first and foremost, regardless of their background or politics. In the final analysis, whatever the orthodoxy says must be done to 'save the Euro' will be implemented come hell or high water - whether this means Eurobonds, money printing, austerity forever etc. etc. until people are literally getting strung up from lampposts.
Interesting implications for the commodity complex:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/05/08/990211/the-subpriming-of-commodities/
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/05/08/990211/the-subpriming-of-commodities/
Quote from darkhorse:
Interesting implications for the commodity complex:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/05/08/990211/the-subpriming-of-commodities/
don't believe this for a single minute. maybe precious metals but all other commodities would show it in storage numbers - and for some (like oil) it is even not possible in sizeable amounts...
Quote from ralph00:
I'm in favor of full default, but this is a naive analysis. The capital of the banking system and the pension fund system will be wiped out in a default. The economy would have a quick collapse ... from there they could set about rebuilding, a la Iceland.
http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/308271
I would also add that Greece is a wonderful place and my family and I eagerly await the return of the drachma, and will provide our support by taking a vacation there and spending large amounts of good, hard currency (if that's what you can call the greenback) ASAP after the devaluation. I expect plenty of Swiss, Brits, Germans, Aussies, Chinese feel exactly the same.
The dirty little secret the EU political elite don't want anyone to know is that Greece will be far better off in 18 months time without rather than with the euro. I expect the Greeks are starting to finally figure this out as well.
Quote from dhpar:
don't believe this for a single minute. maybe precious metals but all other commodities would show it in storage numbers - and for some (like oil) it is even not possible in sizeable amounts...
I actually read a year or two ago about these kind of practices being used in China, IIRC the scheme was that companies would obtain 'trade financing' to buy e.g. copper overseas, then use the copper as collateral for domestic loans. But most of these arrangements must have already come unraveled when prices fell last year. I suspect it's the sort of thing that will show up in price moves on the time scale of a week or two (exaggerated declines when support levels break), but nothing that will be a major macro driver or important source of systemic risk.
Quote from Specterx:
I actually read a year or two ago about these kind of practices being used in China, IIRC the scheme was that companies would obtain 'trade financing' to buy e.g. copper overseas, then use the copper as collateral for domestic loans. But most of these arrangements must have already come unraveled when prices fell last year. I suspect it's the sort of thing that will show up in price moves on the time scale of a week or two (exaggerated declines when support levels break), but nothing that will be a major macro driver or important source of systemic risk.
agree 100%. i believe copper is still widely used as a collateral in china... but it will unwind only when/if china unwinds and if china unwinds than the last think i'd worry with respect to commodities is some securitized stuff. commodities will just go to hell anyways...