Global Macro Trading Journal

[atticus]

Long EURGBP, AUDUSD and index mkts.

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from ralph00:

A one day sell-off and Gross and Hatzius are already on the tape calling for more QE ... and I'm the crackpot?

Bernanke has created a huge mess, maybe worse than Greenspan ever did. You've now got grown men, fabulously wealthy, calling for QE every time markets tick down. Truly sad.

5% off peak in es, get the lifeboats!

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from atticus:

Gross is a complete ho. He'd sell his mother to move his book 200bp.

would you let this guy run your global equity book?

 

[atticus]

Quote from kinggyppo:

would you let this guy run your global equity book?

Yeah, and the dude actually turned out to be crazier than he looks.

 

[Specterx]

Quote from darkhorse:

Not too long ago I voiced short AUDUSD as having "trade of the year" potential -- still think that one's a candidate. Any environment in which the $USD is spiking, AUDUSD is crashing -- with commodity / China infrastructure bubble burst and weakening Oz economy as kickers

Is there any particular reason you prefer shorting the currency to shorting Australian shares?

With the latter you benefit from AUD depreciation, but if the overall AUD thesis is correct then Aussie shares ought to sell off as well, generating some extra return.

 

[Daal]

I'm trying to figure out whether a full Greek default and EUR stay is possible. Lots of people are saying no but at the last minute the EU might come to the conclusion that kicking Greece out might be even more expensive

 

[Daal]

EUR getting destroyed on rumors of no bailout money for Greece tomorrow. USD getting flows

 

[Daal]

I closed my HKD position. Had a small profit there. Still short HK stocks(Plan is to cover at the next VIX spike)

 

[darkhorse]

Quote from Specterx:

Is there any particular reason you prefer shorting the currency to shorting Australian shares?

With the latter you benefit from AUD depreciation, but if the overall AUD thesis is correct then Aussie shares ought to sell off as well, generating some extra return.

Certainly not opposed to shorting shares. Just takes more legwork, logistical details etc -- and AUDUSD play has potential benefit of a carry trade blowout

 

[Specterx]

Quote from darkhorse:

Certainly not opposed to shorting shares. Just takes more legwork, logistical details etc -- and AUDUSD play has potential benefit of a carry trade blowout

Well I've just shorted EWA, not bothered to research individual issues etc.

I guess what I'm saying is that if AUDUSD falls by 20% then the USD value of any AUD-denominated asset also falls by 20%. Therefore it's the same as shorting the currency (though in EWA's case not 100% since some of their holdings are probably ADRs) with potential extra return should Aussie shares get hit as well.