Global Macro Trading Journal

I wonder if gold and gold stocks could be a victim of portfolio contagion here. If the broad market goes into meaningful downtrend -- which looks like a real possibility, key MAs and support levels broken today -- a lot of hedgies will be bailing water over the side.
 
Quote from Daal:

Long USD might be the best trade of 2012. Would like to hear other people thoughts on this
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What is the basis for going long? If it's a "risk off -> dollar up" play, I'd point out that there's been a pretty tenuous relationship between the two. UUP shot up in 2008 - in August that is, after chopping lower for most of the year. It also rocketed in 2010 first for no discernible reason and then because of the Flash Crash. In 2011 however it was probing all-time lows as late as October 27th.

You could probably get more potential profit with lower risk, and easier feedback on whether you're wrong by shorting SPY.
 
Quote from darkhorse:

I wonder if gold and gold stocks could be a victim of portfolio contagion here. If the broad market goes into meaningful downtrend -- which looks like a real possibility, key MAs and support levels broken today -- a lot of hedgies will be bailing water over the side.
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I think every sector tracker dropping 80% is a great buy unless you believe the entire sector will dissapear.

Not there yet...:D
 
Quote from Debaser82:

I think every sector tracker dropping 80% is a great buy unless you believe the entire sector will dissapear.

Not there yet...:D
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2006 levels not good enough for you? lol

So long as the gold price holds the miners will eventually get bid up again, and there's no reason to expect a sustained gold price decline so long as the Fed still jams open the spigot whenever SPX falls a hundred points.
 
A one day sell-off and Gross and Hatzius are already on the tape calling for more QE ... and I'm the crackpot? :D

Bernanke has created a huge mess, maybe worse than Greenspan ever did. You've now got grown men, fabulously wealthy, calling for QE every time markets tick down. Truly sad.
 
Quote from ralph00:

A one day sell-off and Gross and Hatzius are already on the tape calling for more QE ... and I'm the crackpot? :D

Bernanke has created a huge mess, maybe worse than Greenspan ever did. You've now got grown men, fabulously wealthy, calling for QE every time markets tick down. Truly sad.
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Gross is a complete ho. He'd sell his mother to move his book 200bp.
 
Quote from Daal:

Long USD might be the best trade of 2012. Would like to hear other people thoughts on this
More...


Problem with this is a certain bearded clam.

Bernanke has the pimp hand when it comes to $USD, and he's not afraid to administer smackdowns.

Not too long ago I voiced short AUDUSD as having "trade of the year" potential -- still think that one's a candidate. Any environment in which the $USD is spiking, AUDUSD is crashing -- with commodity / China infrastructure bubble burst and weakening Oz economy as kickers
 
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