Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from Butterball:

As Daal is the only one disclosing his entire allocation I also took a few mins to put together my asset allocation numbers.

As % of my net worth:
- approx. 130% long and 40% short equities for 90% net long
- 200% long bonds, mostly gov futs

Rest is minor positions 20% long commodities, long interest rate futures (Euribor & Aussie rates), short approx. 25% EUR. Will allow myself to get stopped out on major adverse movements and will ride whatever isn't stopped out into the summer.

For those who are willing to share, how are you positioned?

I look something like this (liquid only, not including RE etc):

- 11% in PMs (mostly gold)
- 17% with a few different mutf managers (mostly fixed income)
- 8-9% total in a handful of equity positions - long GDX, long GREK (small), short EWA (very small)
- Negligible % (<0.25) in long-dated GDX calls and AMZN puts (bought the latter after the recent earnings spike)
- Remainder (approx 63%) in cash.

I would like to increase my position in GDX either on trend change, or on further significant price weakness so long as gold holds up. EWA, I plan to increase on every technical failed breakout or TL break. I'm waiting to see how GREK performs on the next big leg down before increasing my position.

In theory I could live with a higher PMs allocation as well but for now I'm holding off for lower prices, or more clarity about the future course of money supply, Fed actions etc.

Otherwise equities strike me as a minefield. Might look to put around 10% of assets into some of those floating-rate Treasury notes, if they're indeed issued.
 
Quote from ralph00:
Sorry Marty, just sold a few euros on the ramp up during the ECB press conference. Those guys are delusional.:p
Why sorry? As I said, I have absolutely zero view on the Euro and I iz az flat az a pancake.
 
There is a Romanian miner called Gabriel Resources.

Paulson and others hold it.

It has big permit issues and the stock has fallen from 9$ to 2$ today.

If it drops below 1$ or further I might buy some.

If the permit issue gets resolved it could easily spike massively.

Other miners have had simmilar issues, some went bust, others went huge.

And everyone knows in Eastern Europe you can just buy your permits right...:D
 
Quote from Specterx:

Otherwise equities strike me as a minefield.
I don't disagree here, I'm pessimistic about the prospects for sustained inflation-adjusted gains in US stocks over the next 5-10 years. I keep hearing how incredibly cheap this market is but I just don't see it. At best IMO US equities are fairly valued, at worst they're overpriced heading into a long period of margin compression. There may be some screaming bargains emerging in Europe over the intermediate term but I don't trade those on an individual stock basis, so I can't comment.

Having said that: I've been very (incorrectly) bearish for the last 12 months but hasn't stopped me from being long for a trade, at times aggressively so. Ready to pull in my tail if equities drop another 5-6% from here.
 
Back
Top