Quote from darkhorse:
Right, except I'm arguing the odds of the "violent breakup" actually occurring are close to zero, because 1) the periphery countries aren't suicidal, and 2) Germany isn't that stupid.
It's enough to know that a violent breakup would be catastrophic for all involved, and that such an outcome is forecastable enough, with high enough probability, to check its occurrence.
The counterpoint to this is Lehman... that the authorities saw Lehman coming and stood by anyway. But evidence suggests Hank Paulson and others wrongly believed a Lehman bankruptcy would be manageable. Does anyone really believe that, re, a Spain / Italy exit?
Economic catastrophe is common enough, even in the go-go years - typically governments think they can 'check its occurrence' and eventually find out that the forces of nature remain stronger than any politician. Of course, all the interventions and can-kicking tried along the way serve only to make the eventual crisis longer and more severe.
It's of course possible that the Eurozone countries choose to hang together rather than hang separately, i.e. remain in the currency and print until they've made Mugabe blush. I think it's rather unlikely not because they ('they' the elite bureaucratic class) don't want to do it, but because the centrifugal forces will prove too politically difficult to withstand in nominally democratic states. All it takes is one radical party getting in a government somewhere to scupper the whole thing, and the Eurocrats are doing their very best to ensure this happens.
I agree EURUSD short looks like a crappy trade under present circumstances; what could change that, though, would be a glaring differential in economic strength, with the U.S. appearing strong enough to weather a trajectory of incrementally tightening monetary policy, even as deep recessionary conditions and growing political unrest force Germany to accept revision of the fiscal pact (as the ECB writes big checks).
The funny thing is, the euro and gold are in the same boat to me... there are scenarios where either could be a great short, depending on what happens, or either could be a (temporary) great long, depending on what happens -- specific branches of the scenario tree and all that... the only viewpoint I'm instinctively dismissive of is the one that says "xyz wins no matter what." There are very few no matter what's out there now.
Tightening monetary policy? The chances of that appear extremely remote, so much that it's hardly worth considering until some evidence arrives that it's actually likely - not because Bernanke has promised low rates to 2014 (in the breach such promises are worthless) but because he's constitutionally hyper-dovish, and there will always be some reason to maintain extremely loose policy into the foreseeable future.