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Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
No macro thinking, no fundamental reasoning. Probably there are dozens of very good fundamental reasons for either side of the trade. Why bother?Quote from dhpar:
what is your macro thinking behind shorting EURCHF?
To me - just by means of anecdotal observation - many players are betting on one side of the boat thinking it's a no-risk 100% sure-fire bet to collect risk-free money. What if just hypothetically the 'real' odds are were only 85% or 90%? With the recent drop my risk is down to approx. half a percent with a potential payoff of a dozen or so percent. I love asymmetric setups like these.
Quote from Butterball:
No macro thinking, no fundamental reasoning. Probably there are dozens of very good fundamental reasons for either side of the trade. Why bother?
To me - just by means of anecdotal observation - many players are betting on one side of the boat thinking it's a no-risk 100% sure-fire bet to collect risk-free money. What if just hypothetically the 'real' odds are were only 85% or 90%? With the recent drop my risk is down to approx. half a percent with a potential payoff of a dozen or so percent. I love asymmetric setups like these.
Who are these many players?Because other than myself I don't know anyone who is doing it. The very reason you are short is the reason I'm long. People love a small risk to make a big pay off and they usually overvalue these opportunities(tech stocks, long shots in horse racing, lottery buyers, lots of penny stocks of garbage companies)
Quote from Butterball:
No macro thinking, no fundamental reasoning. Probably there are dozens of very good fundamental reasons for either side of the trade. Why bother?
To me - just by means of anecdotal observation - many players are betting on one side of the boat thinking it's a no-risk 100% sure-fire bet to collect risk-free money. What if just hypothetically the 'real' odds are were only 85% or 90%? With the recent drop my risk is down to approx. half a percent with a potential payoff of a dozen or so percent. I love asymmetric setups like these.
for myself i do not like to be contrarian only for the sake of being contrarian...
it is good to know what events drive your trade, e.g. spain's exit, etc to be able to size your trade - that's what i was (vainly) asking about...
Brazilian government trying to fuel even more the boom
http://www.economist.com/node/21553077
Looks like they did not learn the need for counter cyclical policies in the banking system
http://www.economist.com/node/21553077
Looks like they did not learn the need for counter cyclical policies in the banking system
I was short in size until they established the peg. Similarly long JPY during the half a dozen or so BOJ interventions. I didn't suffer any slippage to write home about.Quote from Daal:
There is also the chance the peg is lifted to 1.25, I don't believe its all that likely but its the other side of that tail one has to be careful about