I looked at GWR's 2010 annual and their latest Q4'11 reports and couldn't find where you are getting the data that singles out GWR as the play for a china slowdown. There wasn't anything there that said GWR's primary/significant source of revenue was derived from Oz. Is your basis simply that it had invested heavily on the Oz rail project and how it reacted because of that in H2'11 and now has correlated to China via Oz? Nothing wrong with that, but I'd like to hear it from the horse's mouth.
Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
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I looked at GWR's 2010 annual and their latest Q4'11 reports and couldn't find where you are getting the data that singles out GWR as the play for a china slowdown. There wasn't anything there that said GWR's primary/significant source of revenue was derived from Oz. Is your basis simply that it had invested heavily on the Oz rail project and how it reacted because of that in H2'11 and now has correlated to China via Oz? Nothing wrong with that, but I'd like to hear it from the horse's mouth.
It's not THE China play, but it is A China play. Their reliance on Australian (moving commodities, hence China) activity has surged over the past couple of years. It is this that is fueling revenue and earnings growth and this that will fuel their revenue and earnings slowdown. Plus, it sells at a major premium to its railroad brethren.
I think it's an outstanding - and until recently completely overlooked - way to play the China hard landing (let's not kid ourselves anymore about what's happening over there). Shorting FCX, VALE, BHP, AUD - that crap's been picked over by ever punter on the planet.
Getting uglier in China ....
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/29/markets-ratings-renhe-idUSWNA372820120329
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/29/markets-ratings-renhe-idUSWNA372820120329
Macro Man had a post on China today:
http://macro-man.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/berlitz-china-pocket-guide.html
http://macro-man.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/berlitz-china-pocket-guide.html
Putting all of the above together with bearish sentiment and interesting technicals in H-Shares (see below chart), TMM have begun building a long position both here and in AUD ahead of this weekend's PMI number, and would look to buy the dip into any knee-jerk sell-off should the number disappoint by only a tad.
Too cute for my taste. But then, I suppose only cavemen pay attention to chart patterns these days. We're short from 105.76 w/ breakeven stop in place.
The junior mining ETF GDXJ was launched at 20$. It went to 40$ and now its at 23$.
Gold was at 1130$ at the launch of the ETF and is at 1650$ today.
Thats a 45% rise in gold and a 15% rise in the ETF.
Jim Rogers always says gold mining is the sector where historically people have lost the most money and commodities themselves always outperform their producers.
I listened to him, but maybe I should have listened better.
Gold was at 1130$ at the launch of the ETF and is at 1650$ today.
Thats a 45% rise in gold and a 15% rise in the ETF.
Jim Rogers always says gold mining is the sector where historically people have lost the most money and commodities themselves always outperform their producers.
I listened to him, but maybe I should have listened better.