Global Macro Trading Journal

I thought I was already on it. I still will call out your silly arguments when you make them. Reminds of 2009/10 when you were saying the economy was not recovering and the stock rally was baloney. Guess what? You were 1000% right. Personally though, I prefer to have the money made during that rally sitting in my account.
 
Quote from Daal:

Note to ralph. you have been added to my ignore list. enjoy your stay
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i have this schmuck on ignore for some time and the thread is much more enjoyable...

BTW, thanks for keeping this journal Daal. quite a few enjoyable posters here. maybe it is a good idea to post more of your live trades with thinking behind it - it is your journal after all...
 
Quote from dhpar:

i have this schmuck on ignore for some time and the thread is much more enjoyable...

BTW, thanks for keeping this journal Daal. quite a few enjoyable posters here. maybe it is a good idea to post more of your live trades with thinking behind it - it is your journal after all...
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I haven't put many macro trades or changed much lately(Though have been trading more actively with some short-term systems). My main positions at this point still remain the same
Long BRKB(Largest, looking to add)
Long HKD(cut 50% today) short EWH(Remain short and I'm expecting risk aversion to pick up at some point)
Long TLT(7-8%, I'm going to add quite aggressively if I start to smell weaker economic data ahead)
Short EUR(5% position nothing huge)
plus some smaller stock positions
 
Quote from Daal:

"On that note, the rate of GDP growth over the past three quarters is already lower than in the three quarters prior to 7 of the past 10 recessions, and the year-over-year growth rate is slower than it was just before 9 of them."

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120305.htm

Truth is if it wasn't for the rising stock market no one would give a shit about the 'better economic data'. If this market drops just 5% from the highs I bet people will get off the 'better economy' bandwagon as fast as they jumped in
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And this is why "monetary policy" has devolved into printing whatever money is necessary to prevent the stock market from declining.

It's still very early but momentum on ES does appear to be weakening - and I'm noticing considerably more dispersion in the stock universe over just the past few sessions than had been evident prior to the LTRO.

Market reaction over the next several weeks will IMO tell us a lot about how strong or weak the "fundamentals" really are. Continued rally at this pace implies that the summer crash really was just a liquidity panic, temporary divergence from baseline; on the other hand a decline which takes hold without the extended ranging and marginal new highs of spring 2011 indicates the situation has deteriorated considerably, and moreover that liquidity injections are becoming less and less effective at concealing it.
 
Quote from Daal:

Long TLT(7-8%, I'm going to add quite aggressively if I start to smell weaker economic data ahead)
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Ah, that certainly explains his last 20 posts. It's frustrating to bleed red while the rest of the world parties. We all know the feeling. Don't worry droogy, eventually you'll be proved right, maybe.
 
One clear change that few people are talking about is the Yen. The market action in the last few weeks is exactly the kind of move that starts off a long-term market trend - the currency got crushed almost 10 big figures with hardly a single rebound. Now, shorting after such a big one-way move is probably a bit too risky, but on any meaningful bounce, I would say this looks like an interesting play.

The Yen is going opposite to the 'risk-on' trade. So, the time to short the Yen is probably the same time as to pile into stocks. VIX above 20 might be a nice entry signal, with the Yen at something like 80.
 
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