Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from Martinghoul:

Well, you see, GoC, as I have said before, we're just going to continue to disagree on this.

To me, Kahneman's papers and books of that sort (generally classified as works on behavioural economics/finance) actually have a lot more to do with trading than many "trading books". I, for one, am very interested in understanding how people, including myself, make trading decisions and approach risk.

Actually, funnily enough, the best traders I know actually don't read trading books. It's the mediocre ones that do and those haven't survived in the long run.

As to global macro, I daresay I know some basics and yes, I agree that global macro events can and do make my market go crazy. I have survived a few such events. My point here is not that expanding mkt knowledge is a bad thing. I am only suggesting that ever increasing understanding of global macro offers diminishing relative returns to someone like myself, an emphatically non-macro trader. I go to extraordinary lengths to make sure to minimize my outright macro biases, precisely because there's minimal relative edge to be had in macro.

No, not at all. This is an incorrect interpretation. As I am sure you will agree, there's an infinite number of things out there that can, in theory, benefit and be useful. One must perforce make a choice and concentrate on things that offer the highest marginal benefit to oneself, sometimes to the exclusion of other, less useful things. That is what I do and, more importantly, that is also what you do. I choose Kahneman and behavioral economics over trading books, while you choose the opposite. I can respect your choice and I see no need to accuse you of being lazy, unmotivated etc etc. So I would suggest that you keep an open mind and allow that there are people out there who disagree with you. It's generally a good thing for traders to do this.
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i agree with ghost about the lazy part as I'm guilty of it,any reading more than a few paragraphs is taxing,that's what i like about this and other trading sites,this thread is often over my head but i read it because the posters in here are up on macro
 
Despite Poetins obvious power grab and all the corruption with it a fair amount of open criticism is there and perhaps a sign that the country is slowly evolving into something new and perhaps more investment worthy in the long run.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

Well, firstly, I agree with you, in general. To each their own and I have said this a number of times. If you're a macro guy, I can see how trading books can be of help. I can also appreciate the fact that it's very timeframe-dependent, as you suggest. Moreover, I completely agree that macro strategies are probably the least capacity and liquidity-constrained (which is why Bridgewater can be the size it is).

However, in my professional capacity I simply cannot operate on a multiple decade timeframes. Even my PA macro punts hardly ever last more than a couple of years. Therefore, I confine myself to strategies that operate on a shorter timescale and offer risk-adjusted returns far superior to macro, especially during periods of high macroeconomic uncertainty. Again, very much in line with what you have stated above. So the point that I am making is that, for me, trading books offer a very small marginal bang for the time spent. I realize that I have also been disparaging of the whole genre, but that's just because I think quality is rare.
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Well, my fed futures trade kept paying off every 6 months or so(And I would renew them). I originally got the idea from Siva Joty(Incidentally) interview. He used E$ and eventually got burned but I decided it didn't make much sense and used ZQ

I also got quite a bit of confidence for holding the trade by reading Greenspan's Memoir, in particular the chapter he talks about the banking crisis and recession of the early 90's
 
Quote from Daal:

I would like to see the evidence that those estimates are more reliable. As far the 2nd point goes, if ES tanks 4% on monday you promise you are not selling?I see a lot of people who want to ride momentum and try to spin the 'fundamentals' in their favor to feel good about holding the position. I hope thats not what you are doing
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What are you smoking? If ES tanks 4% on Monday, only idiots or those over-levered will be selling. You're supposed to take advantage of panics by buying (as some on this thread were doing last August and September).

You own and love BRK for crying out loud. How can you think it's a bright idea to unload quality stocks in the midst of a big market sell off.

Any discussion of books is a weak one if it doesn't include Mauboussin's Think Twice.

Education of a Speculator is a top 5 as well.
 
Quote from ralph00:



Education of a Speculator is a top 5 as well.
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Doh! Oh, the memories of that book...

I remember reading Education of a Speculator (Vic Niederhoffer) when it came out and literally thinking, wow: "Here is a massively pretentious guy who WANTS to blow himself up."

The book was like a psychological case study documenting delusions of grandeur (imho). I mean, VN starts off by bragging about how he never wears shoes to the office, never reads books or newspapers less than 100 years old, plays classical concertos during the trading day, on and on... in otherwords "Look at how much more refined and sensitive and cultured I am than you."

The book itself was very entertaining -- ruminations on squash, lobagola analysis, hoodoos, stuff like that -- but the guy practically advertised a trading death wish.

In that story of trading the yen, where his accounts were just a few ticks away from total annihilation, you can just sense VN's death lust oozing off the pages. The guy was perversely proud of juggling hand grenades, and facets of his ego came off every page.

When I finished the book I wrote an Amazon review, stating "this guy wants to blow himself up" (among other critiques). Vic got Amazon to take the review down somehow. But then sure enough, not long after... and not long after that yet again...

Now contrast a guy like Vic -- who shouts LOOK AT ME, LOOK AT ME -- with a book like "Soros on Soros," where the palindrome goes on at great length about how humble the market has made him, how his whole philosophy is based on the concept of fallibility, the reality of imperfect information etc. etc. etc. It's night and day.

(Soros also told Vic he was going to blow up someday. Vic bragged about the anecdote in E of a S. Then he did blow up. And then once or twice more for good measure.)

p.s. Ironically, if MartinGhoul had said the only trading book he'd consumed in the past 20 years was VN's, I would instantly understand the base case for his point of view...
 
Quote from ralph00:

You do realize you just made the perfect case for why Education of a Speculator is a must-read book.
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Hmm... maybe you're right... it's a very fun read regardless, though not one I would put in the "concrete ideas and insights" category.
 
"On that note, the rate of GDP growth over the past three quarters is already lower than in the three quarters prior to 7 of the past 10 recessions, and the year-over-year growth rate is slower than it was just before 9 of them."

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120305.htm

Truth is if it wasn't for the rising stock market no one would give a shit about the 'better economic data'. If this market drops just 5% from the highs I bet people will get off the 'better economy' bandwagon as fast as they jumped in
 
Yes, markets make opinions. It has been thus for centuries.

Will you be unloading your BRK should it drop several percentage points?
 
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